[This is totally indulgent post about something very important to me.  Fortunately for the readers who are interested in fantasy baseball, it's also entirely fucking genius.  I don't get too deep in analysis, both for space/time constraints and because I don't want to give away any of my big secrets, but this is guide should get you through the first 15 rounds of your draft, maybe more.  And if you're one of the freaks who do auction drafts, go away, because this is all about drafting.  Weirdos.]

It’s the most wonderful time of the year: fantasy baseball drafting season.

I know youse jerks hate when I write about sports, but there ain’t nothing that could stop me from writing this post.  Fantasy baseball is the one thing in life that brings me joy without any repercussions.  Across the board, it’s beneficial: it makes me money, it keeps me in touch with friends that I might not correspond with otherwise, it teaches me how to better shit talk, it allows for greater socialbility since I can talk to any sports-lovin’ dude anywhere in the world, it takes any time from my getting-a-little-uncomfortable porn habit, and is just totally fucking fun.

It helps my self-esteem too, since I’m excellent at it.  Last year, I participated in four leagues, winning three of them and finishing second in the fourth.  So if there is one thing I’m going to speak with authority about, it’s fantasy baseball.

And so as a public service to all those readers drafting fantasy leagues this week, I present to you my Fantasy Baseball 2006 preview.  One caveat that you must keep in mind: I could completely be lying here.  Many of my competitors know about this site, so in order to not let them in on my secret picks, I might lie here and there.  But, like this blog, this preview will be at least 60% true. 

Some general rules about drafting:

1) Know your enemy.  Certain owners have certain inclinations.  For example, if you’re drafting with a bunch of guys from Boston, you can probably expect that Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, and Beckett will go off the board sooner than they should.  Alternatively, you might know that some guys favor offense to pitchers or don’t care about closers or will stop at nothing to get David Wright on their roster because they have a man-crush on him.  Knowing who you’re drafting against, when possible, is important in determining how to draft your team. 

2) Know your categories.  This only applies to those that are not in standard 5×5 leagues (5×5 meaning Runs, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, Average and Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP).  Some leagues only have minor changes; for example, my main league uses on-base percentage instead of average and total bases instead of home runs, which makes for a much better league in our opinion.

But what you have to watch for duplicative categories.  For example, in another league I’m in, the categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, and OPS.  This means that power hitters should be favored in this league, for every time a power hitter hits a home run, it will affect R, HR, RBI, AVG, and OPS.  That’s five different categories.      

[Which is why that you should never fall in love with steals.  I know that are harder to come by than homers, but remember that every home run affects FOUR categories: it's one home run, one run, at least one RBI, and helps with average.  A stolen base affects one category: stolen bases.  Common sense, but often times owners get so obsessed with finding steals that they'll take someone like Scott Podsednik over Hideki Matsui, which is a major mistake.]  

3) Know when to draft and when to pass.  People forget that the most important rule of any fantasy draft, much like the most important rule of love, is that the right person comes along at the right time.  Sigh.

An example will help.  I really like Rickie Weeks this year.  I think, even with his current (small) malady, he has the potential to be at least 20-20, possibly 25-25.  But does that mean that I’m going to take Rickie Weeks in the fourth round of my draft?  No, not at all.  I know that I don’t have to take Rickie Weeks very high, because the other owners in my league don’t feel the way I do about him.  Of course, this is a gamble, but one I feel comfortable taking.  After all, isn’t the whole point of fantasy baseball gambling anyway? 

So instead of taking Rickie Weeks early, I will wait on him until later in the draft when I feel it is the right time to take him.  Until that time comes, I’m going to draft other guys I like, who I know are on my competitors’ radar screens, either because they’re highly ranked, highly touted, or they have said that they like that player. 

So I will meet Rickie Weeks early in the draft, and though I may be enamored with him, I will have to let him go and set him free.  If he comes back to me later, say in the 16th round, well, then it’s really meant to be.  And we will be together.  Forever.  Or at least until the end of the season.  

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I’ll pick the top few at each position, give a little analysis, and then name sleepers and busts.  I realize that "sleepers" and "busts" are objective, but I’ll define a sleeper as someone whose performance will exceed their draft position and a bust as someone who doesn’t live up to his draft position.  Dig?

Ok, let’s go.

CATCHER
1) Victor Martinez (Cle)
2) Joe Mauer (Min)
3) Jason Varitek (Bos)
4) Javy Lopez (Bal)
5) Jorge Posada (NYY)
6) Ivan Rodriguez (Det)
7) Kenji Johjima (Sea)
8) Ramon Hernandez (Bal)
9) AJ Pierzynski (CWS)
10) Josh Willingham (Fla)

Catcher is, believe it or not, kinda deep this year.  That is not to say that there are lots of solid producers here, but rather a number of second-tier options.  Therefore, the best advice is to draft late.  Martinez won’t make it past the 5th, Mauer should go around 9, followed by Varitek shortly thereafter.  I’d rather stock up on other positions and take a guy like Hernandez or Pierzynski in the 18th round.  Beware fading stars: names like Posada, Pudge and Piazza will probably go much higher than they should because of their previous (i.e. 1999) stats. 

Sleeper: Josh Willingham (Fla).  If there’s any position in which to take a flier on a player, it’s catcher, seeing as your average catcher produces something like .250-60-10-60-0.  Willingham is a highly-touted young guy (but not in the Joe Mauer sense) catching and playing left field for Florida.  The team will stink, but someone’s gotta hit.  And there’s a chance that the majority of owners in your league won’t even know he exists, so take him very late and expect a nice lil’ return. 

Bust: Mike Piazza (SD).  Piazza’s not even on my list, which is really saying something.  A lot of people are talking about a possible resurgence of the Italian Stallion, but I don’t see it.  He’s been consistently hurt, he’s still catching and playing bad first base rather than DHing, and moved to one of the worst hitter’s parks in the league.  His saving grace has been that he still has his power – he hasn’t hit .300 since 2001, but managed 20 and 19 home runs in the previous two injury-shortened seasons - but the leading Padre power hitter managed just 18 home runs last season.  Based on his name and new team, Piazza will be drafted much high than his numbers will merit. 

FIRST BASE
1) Albert Pujols (Stl)
2) David Ortiz (Bos)
3) Mark Teixeira (Tex)
4) Derrick Lee (ChC)
5) Richie Sexson (Sea)
6) Lance Berkman (Hou)
7) Carlos Delgado (NYM)
8) Todd Helton (Col)
9) Paul Konerko (CWS)
10) Adam Dunn (Cin)

Since there’s so much depth here, let’s add another couple:

11) Ryan Howard (Phi)
12) Jim Thome (CWS)
13) Jason Giambi (NYY)
14) Justin Morneau (Min)
15) Chad Tracy (Ari)

Your top four 1B won’t make it out of the first round.  After that, there’s a drop, but not too much: Sexson and Co. are worthy of 3rd/4th round status.  In the past my logic has been to forsake a top-flight 1B and get someone very late, but I realized something last year: that makes it very difficult for you to win (even though I did eventually win).  The average fantasy 1B (not MLB 1B) puts up numbers like .290-100-30-100.  It’s a power position, and if you don’t get a guy capable of producing power numbers, you’re at a disadvantage to your opponents.  Still, remember, it’s deep.  I’d be happy to have any of those top 10 guys starting on my team.  But just don’t wait too long to draft them.   

Sleeper: The position is so deep that it doesn’t lend itself to sleepers, but how about my boy Aubrey Huff?  He had an off-year last year but still put up decent numbers and currently qualifies at 1B and OF and will more than likely get 3B qualification.  I’m not saying you should draft him before Round 13, but two years ago the guy went .297-92-29-104-5 (and .311-94-34-107-2 the year before that).  If you can snag him late, he’ll be worth it.  Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Prince Fielder, who should neither be replied upon nor forgotten about.  But he’s showing pretty good plate discipline this spring and could put together some solid, possibly very solid numbers.   

Bust: Ryan Howard.  I had a draft two weeks ago where Howard went in the 4th round.  In my draft last night, he also went in the 4th.  Meanwhile, in last night’s draft I got Todd Helton in the 7th (!).  I think the guy’s going to be good – great even – but he’s got a half year of Major League experience under his belt and hit .148 against lefties last year.  I like him and as a Phillie fan I hope he makes me eat my words, but if you’re drafting him ahead of guys like Sexson, Berkman, Helton, et al, you’re making a mistake. 

SECOND BASE
1) Alfonso Soriano (Was)
2) Chase Utley (Phi)
3) Jeff Kent (LA)
4) Chone Figgins (Ana)
5) Marcus Giles (Atl)
6) Brian Roberts (Bal) 
7) Jorge Cantu (TB)
8) Tadahito Iguchi (CWS)
9) Rickie Weeks (Mil)
10) Mark Ellis (Oak)

Here’s my take on Soriano: yes, Washington is a pitcher’s park.  But forget about that.  You know what you shouldn’t forget about?  That Soriano is in a contract year.  He needs to put up some big numbers this year, not just so he can get paid, but so that some team will pay him to play 2B.  So he’s still the top 2B to me, with Utley not too far behind, followed by a short gap, then Kent and Figgins.    

Sleeper: A few come to mind, namely Weeks (though hurt now, easily capable of 20-20 as mentioned above), Iguchi (ditto, sans being hurt right now), Mark Loretta (I could score 85 runs hitting second in the Boston’s lineup), Ryan Freel (will get more AB’s now that Willy Mo is gone, capable of 50+ steals and multi-position eligibility).  I guess what I’m saying is that if you miss out on the Soriano/Utley/Kent/Figgins sweepstakes, you might be able to find some nice late round options.

Bust: I have to go with Cantu here.  Nothing against the guy, especially since he’s pretty handsome, but I don’t see him putting up 117 RBI again, but that’s what he’s going to be drafted for.  I’d expect around 85. 

SHORTSTOP
1) Michael Young (Tex)
2) Miguel Tejada (Bal)
3) Jose Reyes (NYM)
4) Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
5) Derek Jeter (NYY)
6) Rafael Furcal (LAD)
7) Jhonny Peralta (Cle)
8) Felipe Lopez (Cin)
9) Julio Lugo (TB)
10) Clint Barmes (Col)

Man, remember the days when A-Rod, Nomar, and Jeter were the three best shortstops and all gone by the start of the third round?  And after those three were gone, you didn’t take a SS until the 15th?  No longer: Young and Tejada stand at the top and are second round picks, Reyes should go around round three or four, Rollins in four or five, then Jeter around six.   

Sleeper: Two Oakland guys not on the list: Mark Ellis (who actually plays 2B but qualifies at SS) and Bobby Crosby.  Though neither are speedsters, both should put up solid numbers and can be taken late.  I also like Peralta, who didn’t put it together into well into the season when he settled into the third spot in the order (previously, he was batting at the bottom).  And Hanley Ramirez could steal 35 bases down in Florida.  And…NOMAH!  I have no idea if he still has it, but I’ll take a flyer on him, especially since he’ll qualify at SS, 3B, and soon 1B in most leagues. 

Bust: No one particularly stands out here.  One caution is Lopez, who’s fairly gigantic numbers (.291-97-23-85-15) might have him overvalued a bit, as I don’t expect similar numbers this year.   

THIRD BASE
1) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
2) David Wright (NYM)
3) Miguel Cabrera (Fla)
4) Chone Figgins (Ana)
5) Scott Rolen (Stl)
6) Aramis Ramirez (ChC)
7) Eric Chavez (Oak)
8) Chipper Jones (Atl)
9) Morgan Ensberg (Hou)
10) Hank Blalock (Tex)

I have previously listed the player in the position they’re most likely to play, but I believe Chone Figgins is so valuable that he needs consideration at 2B and 3B (he also qualifies at OF).  Some might argue that Cabrera should be above Wright, but two things make me go with Wright: his steals and the fact that Florida stinks.  Scott Rolen and Aramis Ramirez were both hampered by injuries last year but are both capable of .300-100-30-100 seasons.  Don’t forget about them, especially Rolen, who was one of the top 20 players in fantasy baseball two years ago.       

Sleeper: I like Hank Blalock, who had an off-year last year.  You have to love Texas in that tiny park with all those young hitters; they’re only going to get better.  Also, look out for Melvin Mora, who single-handedly tried to submarine every team I had last year but is only one year removed .340-111-27-104-11 and had a great half-season in 2004 when he was finally put in the starting lineup.  Also, I think he has quintuplets or something, which is kinda cool. 

Bust: I may be eating my words, but I have to go with Adrian Beltre.  A stellar WBC performance has him going higher than he should, as people forget that he was a bum before having a monster season in his contract year.  I personally am staying away, unless he falls to me very late, which he won’t. 

OUTFIELD
1) Vladimir Guerrero (Ana)
2) Manny Ramirez (Bos)
3) Bobby Abreu (Phi)
4) Jason Bay (Pit)
5) Carl Crawford (TB)
6) Gary Sheffield (NYY)
7) Miguel Cabrera (Fla)
8) Ichiro Suzuki (Sea) 
9) Andrew Jones (Atl)
10) Lance Berkman (Hou)
11) Carlos Lee (Mil)
12) Carlos Beltran (NYM)
13) Barry Bonds (SFG)
14) Grady Sizemore (Cle)
15) Hideki Matsui (NYY)
16) Johnny Damon (NYY)
17) Juan Pierre (ChC)
18) Scott Podsednik (CWS)
19) Pat Burrell (Phi)
20) Cliff Floyd (NYM)
21) Ken Griffey Jr. (Cin)

All fairly straightforward, but let’s get to the heart of the matter: Where the fuck do you draft Beltran and Bonds?

The experts must know something about Beltran that I don’t, because I continue to see him going in the late second/early third rounds.  It’s hard for me to justify taking him this high, because Shea Stadium is where hitters go to die, as evinced by his deplorable .266-83-16-78-17 year.  I mean, those are horrible, horrible numbers.  I personally am staying away and wouldn’t take him until - at earliest – the 5th round, but you can guarantee someone in your league will be teased by the 30-30 potential and take him higher.  Wish that owner good luck and grab Hideki Matsui instead.

As for Bonds, I think he’s going to play at least 120 games and do something like .320-105-40-100.  Not bad numbers, but you have to remember that that .320 average is going to come in a very small number of at-bats, since Bonds walks so often.  Therefore, you can expect him to contribute in the average category, since if you figure he hits .320 over 120 games while walking a lot, that’s like hitting .320 over the course of 90 games.  HOWEVER, if, like me, you count on-base percentage instead of average, you MUST give him a serious look.  Even in a shortened season, his OBP is going to be over .500 and well in front of the second best in the league.  In a non-OBP league, draft him in the 7th.  Take him earlier in an OBP league.   

Sleeper: I had to do 21, because I couldn’t leave Griffey off the list.  I don’t know what people make of him; in my two drafts, he went late, even though he produced some very nice numbers last year and has been playing very well this spring.  It’s a total leap of faith, but I think he puts it together this year.  I don’t think  .300-110-40-110 is out of the question.  That being said, he’s still a major injury risk, so I take him only as my third OF, possibly my second (if I was feeling good).  Another sleeper I liked was Brad Wilkerson, who could put up some nice numbers in Texas.  However, I learned yesterday – after I drafted him – that he just got an MRI on the shoulder that hurt him all last year, so I’m backing off. 

Bust: Carl Crawford had an anomalous year in terms of run production, hitting career highs in home runs (by 4) and RBI (by 26).  Still a great player, but expect 60 RBI, not 80+.  Otherwise, it’s tough to say with only 21 OF’s listed; if I listed 40, I could easily call out some busts, but I have to stop at 21. 

STARTING PITCHER
1) Johan Santana (Min)
2) Pedro Martinez (NYM)
3) Chris Carpenter (Stl)
4) Jake Peavy (SDG)
5) Roy Oswalt (Hou)
6) Roy Halladay (Tor)
7) Randy Johnson (NYY)
8) Carlos Zambrano (ChC)
9) Rich Harden (Oak)
10) Andy Pettite (Hou)
11) Felix Hernandez (Sea)
12) Ben Sheets (Mil)
13) Mark Prior (ChC)
14) Bartolo Colon (Ana)
15) AJ Burnett (Tor)
16) Josh Beckett (Bos)
17) Jason Schmidt (SFG)
18) Mark Buehrle (CWS)
19) Dontrelle Willis (Fla)
20) Brett Myers (Phi)

In years past, Randy was a number one pick, followed shortly by Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez.  But this year, there’s only one true ace in fantasy baseball: Johan Santana.  I think there’s little difference between pitchers 2-9, who will be their respective team’s ace, and pitchers 10-20, who are very solid second starters.  If you’re somehow able to grab one from each group, you’re in good shape.

The conundrum with pitchers is where to draft Roger Clemens.  I’m going to have to say "no thanks" on this one.  I’m much more willing to take a chance with a hitter than with a pitcher, and I wouldn’t feel right drafting Clemens anytime in the first twelve rounds – at least.  Also, he’s being such a bitch (as in, a woman) about the retirement decision, isn’t he?  All the hemming and hawing back and forth – just make a decision, douche.   

Sleeper: So many deep sleepers, but I don’t want to give away too many of my secrets.  I think that Jason Schmidt is going to have a great bounceback year, so don’t be afraid to go after him.  I also really like Harden and Myers, who are maturing and right on schedule to have monster years.  And that’s really all I have to say about this.

Bust: Dontrelle Willis, I would not touch with a twenty foot pool.  He’s going high in drafts, because even though my father is batting cleanup for the Marlins, Willis did win 22 games last year (which might be how many games this team wins in total).  Good pitcher, great numbers from last year, but stay away. 

RELIEF PITCHER  
1) Mariano Rivera (NYY)
2) Brad Lidge (Hou)
3) Billy Wagner (NYM)
4) Joe Nathan (Min)
5) Francisco Rodriguez (Ana)
6) BJ Ryan (Tor)

7) Huston Street

(Oak)
8) Chad Cordero (Was)
9) Eric Gagne (LAD)
10) Trevor Hoffman (SDG)

The arguments go back and forth.  There are those that shit on closers, saying they’re one category players who don’t pitch a lot of innings that should be taken late drafts, after rosters have been filled out.  Then there are those who go with the "quality" angle, saying even though Mariano Rivera is giving you 200 innings, it’s tough to argue with an ERA around 2, a nice WHIP, and a healthy amount of K’s and saves.

My take?  Fuck closers.  Look at Gagne and Benitez last year.  Some owners wasted a third round pick on Gagne, thinking they were all set in the closer department, only to watch him go down with an injury early in the year.  So instead of using that 3rd round pick on Berkman, Ichiro, or Jeff Kent, they got nothing.  Do your research, grab your closers late, be vigilant during the year in picking them up, and you’ll finish near the top in saves.   

It’s hard to define sleepers and busts prior to the season, because there’s just too much speculation.  The best bet to find that hidden closer is to a) watch "SportsCenter" and b) scan the box scores in the morning for any strange pitchers getting saves.  Some random names worth looking at late in your draft: Ambiorix Burgos (KC), Jose Valverde (Ari), Mike Gonzalez (Pit), and Kyle Davies (Atl). 

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Well, I’m exhausted – how about you?  I don’t have an ending, because I’m pretty tired, but I’ll just wish you good luck.  Follow these rules and you will be well-prepared for your fantasy baseball draft.  And then when you win, cut me a piece of that check.  Please.