It’s my favorite time of the year: fantasy baseball drafting season.

Few things give me as much satisfaction as fantasy baseball.  It combines so many things that makes me happy: sports, competition, shit-talking, friends, wasting my employer’s time, being good at something, and winning.  The only things missing are boobies and beer, but I have enough of them in my life anyway.* 

[*Note: This sentence is only half-true.] 

If you’re familiar with the site, you know what I’m going to do, since I do it each year.  The following preview applies to roto drafts (fuck off, auction people) in a standard 5×5 category leagues: runs, rbis, home runs, stolen bases, and average on offense; wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP for pitching.  I will confess that because in my two main leagues we use OBP instead of average and total bases instead of home runs, I may be biased a little bit and offer insight in line with that bias.

Before we get to the position by position breakdown, some general, timeless, and extremely obvious rules about drafting:

1) Know your enemy.  Certain owners have certain inclinations.  For example, if you’re drafting with a bunch of guys from Boston, you can probably expect that Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, and Beckett (and Papelbon – especially Papelbon) will go off the board sooner than they should.  Alternatively, you might know that some guys favor offense to pitchers, or don’t care about closers, or will stop at nothing to get David Wright on their roster because they have a man-crush on him (Site Guy Brendan, I’m looking in your direction).  Knowing who you’re drafting against, when possible, is important in determining how to draft your team.  

2) Know your categories.  This only applies to those that are not in standard 5×5 leagues (again, 5×5 meaning Runs, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, Average and Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP).  Some leagues only have minor changes; for example, as mentioned above, my main league uses on-base percentage instead of average and total bases instead of home runs, which makes for a much better league in our opinion.

But what you have to watch for duplicative categories.  For example, in another league I’m in, the categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, and OPS.  This means that power hitters should be especially favored in this league, for every time a power hitter hits a home run, it will affect R, HR, RBI, AVG, and OPS.  That’s five different categories.  I was even in a league once in which both strikeouts and strikeouts/9 innings were categories, so of course those high-K guys were doubly valuable.         

3) Embrace the home run.  Here’s something very simple that took me many seasons to finally realize: when in doubt, take the power hitter.  You can’t think of home runs as a single category, since every home run directly results in one run, at least one RBI, and a help in average.  Each homer affects four categories.  Some people will get cutesy and draft speed guys (affects SB and possibly average and runs) or high average guys (will affect average and potentially runs and rbis), but let them.  One home run is a guaranteed benefit for three other categories.  If you have a lot of power, you will have a lot of HR, runs, and RBIs (and as long as your team isn’t full of Adam Dunn’s, then your average shouldn’t be too bad either).    

4) Embrace the K.  I wrote a bit about this last year, when a reader took me to task for leaving Roy Halladay off my end of season Top 25 players.  To recap, I wrote: 

Few roto baseball players realize that having a pitcher on your team with a low K/9 rate actually hurts your team.  To prove this, let’s take one of my leagues from this year.  Each of the eleven teams maxed out their allotted 1400 innings.  The person who "won" strikeouts, getting 11 points in that category, finished the year 1242 strikeouts.  That’s an eyelash under 8 K/9.  The person in the middle (earning a 6) averaged 6.9 K/9 and the person in last (getting a 1) averaged 6 K/9.

Roy Halladay threw 220 innings and struck out only 132.  That’s only 5.4 K/9, well under the average for a typical last place finisher in strikeouts in any roto league.  So if you draft Halladay, you’re putting yourself in the red for K’s.  And as he will likely be your first pitcher taken, you will need to subsequently draft many high K guys, which might be difficult, as these guys typically go off the board faster than other pitchers.  And if you pick up another low K guy - Wang (3.13 K/9), Garland (4.77 K/9) and Kenny Rogers (4.36 K/9) all finished in the top three in the major leagues in wins, but were downright embarrassing in the K department – you’re basically submarining your team and guaranteeing a finish in the bottom three in strikeouts. 

I don’t need to tell you that taking a pitcher with a high-K rate is better than taking one with a low-K rate; of course you’re going to take Carlos Zambrano over Derek Lowe.  But what I’m suggesting is that it might be worthwhile to took a flier on a young, high-K guy with potential (Daniel Cabrera and Ian Snell come to mind) over vets who will give you good stuff, but nothing spectacular (like Greg Maddux or the aforementioned Garland). 

[And I realize the contradiction here: in one point, I espousing the home run, as it affects four categories.  In the next, I'm advocating strikeout guys, strikeouts being just one category.  My defense is that you can't compare offense and pitching drafting strategies.  I'm not saying that you should abandon the other pitching peripherals, but rather suggesting that if given the choice between two similar options, always that the K guy.  Whereas in offense, I'm saying that you should almost forsake speed and go like a hawk from hell after power hitters.  Dig?]

5) Know when to draft and when to pass.  People forget that the most important rule of any fantasy draft, much like the most important rule of love, is that the right person comes along at the right time. 

An example will help.  I really like Ian Kinsler this year.  I think he’s going to be terrific hitting in front of Michael Young and Mark Teixeira.  Not only that, he’s got some pop and speed too and it wouldn’t surprise me if his final line is something like 110-20-80-20-.290, which is mighty good for a 2B.    

But that doesn’t mean that I’m going to take Kinsler in the fourth round of my draft, because I won’t have to take him then.  I know (or rather, I’m confident in betting) that other guys in my league are not as high on Kinsler as I am, and will take guys like Utley, Roberts, Cano and a host of others ahead of him.  So instead of taking Ian Kinsler early, I will wait on him until later in the draft when I feel it is the right time to take him.  Until that time comes, I’m going to draft other guys I like, who I know are on my competitors’ radar screens, either because they’re highly ranked, highly touted, or they have said that they like that player. 

So I will meet Ian Kinsler early in the draft, and though I may be enamored with him, I will have to let him go and set him free.  If he comes back to me later, say in the 12th or 14th round, well, then it’s really meant to be.  And we will be together.  Forever.  Or at least until the end of the season.  

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I’ll pick the top few at each position, give a little analysis, and then name sleepers and busts.  I realize that "sleepers" and "busts" are objective, but I’ll define a sleeper as someone whose performance will exceed their draft position and a bust as someone who doesn’t live up to his draft position. 

Ok, let’s go.

CATCHER
1) Joe Mauer (Min)
2) Victor Martinez (Cle)
3) Brian McCann (Atl)
4) Mike Piazza (Oak)
5) Jorge Posada (NYY)
6) Ramon Hernandez (Bal)
7) Ivan Rodriguez (Det)
8) Kenji Johjima (Sea)
9) Michael Barrett (ChC)
10) Russell Martin (LAD)
11) AJ Pierzynski (CHW)
12) Paul LoDuca (NYM)

Analysis: There’s Joe Mauer, followed shortly by Victor Martinez and Brian McCann, followed by everyone else.  The trick with drafting a catcher, the weakest offensive position, is knowing when to draft one.  Meaning, if you don’t get one of the top three, don’t rush and take Mike Piazza in the sixth, because he won’t put up numbers comparable to other six rounders.  It’s all about value with catchers. 

Sleeper: Jorge Posada.  He’s in a contract year, feeling slightly disrespected, and in a potent lineup.  Also, he’s lost his sexiness over the years and could go very late in your draft.  Take him late and comfortably expect 70-20-85-0-.275.  Keep your eye on Russell Martin and Jason Varitek as well, and there’s my favorite slogan: "You can’t go wrong with Paul LoDuca."  I seemingly get him every year in the 19th and am ok with that.     

Bust: Joe Mauer.  Not because he’s not going to put up nice numbers, but is 90-20-90-10-.320 worth a third round pick?  Let someone else draft him guy and get a bigger bat or first or second starter instead.  Otherwise, I think Piazza, who is sexy again now in Oakland, will go higher than his numbers will warrant.   

FIRST BASE
1) Albert Pujols (StL)
2) Ryan Howard (Phi)
3) David Ortiz (Bos)
4) Lance Berkman (Hou)
5) Travis Hafner (Cle)*
6) Mark Teixiera (Tex)
7) Justin Morneau (Min)
8) Derek Lee (ChC)
9) Paul Konerko (ChW)
10) Gary Sheffield (Det)
11) Carlos Delgado (NYM)
12) Jim Thome (ChW)*
13) Nick Swisher (Oak)
14) Prince Fielder (Mil) 
15) Richie Sexson (Sea)
16) Jason Giambi (NYY)
17) Todd Helton (Col)
18) Adrian Gonzalez (SDG)
19) Lyle Overbay (Tor)
20) Frank Thomas (Tor)*

(*Assuming Hafner, Thome and Thomas qualify at 1B)

Analysis: This is the money position; those first seven 1B should be gone by the start of the third round in your draft, as each are capable of 100-40-120-0-.300 – and in some cases a lot more.  While there is great depth at 1B, it’s important not too ignore the position too much and think, "Well, I’ll just get Lyle Overbay in the 15th."  Not that that would be a bad pick, but you must consider that your competitors may have one or two of those mashers at 1B, and you don’t want to have 80-25-85-0-.275 coming out of the 1B position when the rest of the guys in your league have 95-35-105-0-.300 in that spot.     

Sleeper: A few guys I like here: Gary Sheffield, who seems very pissed off; Adrian Gonzalez, who put up stellar numbers as a rookie in a pitcher’s park – look for him to continue an upward trend; and also Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson, and if he qualifies, Michael Cuddyer.   

Bust: Hate to say this, but I have to go with Ryan Howard (and yes, I know I said this last year – he batted .140-something against lefties the year before!).  The thing is, Ryan Howard will be a top five pick in your draft.  But I don’t think he’ll be able to replicate the monstrous numbers he put up last year.  So why not take Mark Teixeira with the 20th pick in your draft and get numbers just a cut below?  That’s all I’m saying about that, except from I hope I’m wrong and Ryan Howard clubs 80 homers on the way to a Phillies’ World Series championship.   

SECOND BASE
1) Chase Utley (Phi)
2) Brian Roberts (Bal)
3) Chone Figgins (LAA)
4) Robinson Cano (NYY)
5) Rickie Weeks (Mil)
6) Ian Kinsler (Tex)
7) Julio Lugo (Bos)
8) Howie Kendrick (LAA)
9) Brandon Phillips (Cin)
10) Dan Uggla (Fla)
11) Jeff Kent (LAD)
12) Josh Barfield (Cle)

Analysis: If all the second basemen in the majors got a band together, it could be called "Chase Utley and the Gang of Marginals."  Good lord.  Utley is a late first/early second round pick, and, similar to the catching position, it’s important where you draft these lesser players.  Will there be that great a disparity between, say, Brian Roberts, who will go off the board fairly early, and Rickie Weeks, who will stick around a lot longer?      

Sleeper: Jeff Kent is so unsexy he’s sexy.  He doesn’t steal, but when he plays, he hits.  Josh Barfield has some serious potential in that Cleveland lineup (though I’d love to see him hitting second), and don’t forget about Orlando Hudson (Ari) and Chris Burke (Hou) who will put up some solid numbers this year.  

Bust: Two things: Robinson Cano will not hit .340 this year.  This doesn’t exactly make him a bust, because he’s still a Yankee, but expect more like .305 (which is fine).  And if you’re drafting Julio Lugo* and expecting 30+ steals, well, you’ve got another thing coming, my friend.  

(*Lugo qualifies at and will play SS for the Red Sox, but I wanted to include him here because he qualifies and this position is thinner.)

SHORTSTOP
1) Jose Reyes (NYM)
2) Derek Jeter (NYY)
3) Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
4) Hanley Ramirez (Fla)
5) Miguel Tejada (Bal)
6) Rafael Furcal (LAD)
7) Michael Young (Tex)
8) Troy Glaus (Tor)
9) Carlos Guillen (Det)
10) Felipe Lopez (Was)
11) Bill Hall (Mil)
12) Edgar Renteria (Atl)

Analysis: Two years ago, Michael Young was a late first/early second round pick.  Now he’s the 7th best fantasy shortstop in the league.  There’s a good amount of depth here and your basic decision is between speed guys (Rollins, Ramirez, Furcal, Lopez) and run producers (Tejada, Young, Glaus, Guillen).

Sleeper:  I like Michael Young a lot, precisely because he was a much higher pick a year or two ago and his numbers haven’t changed much – he’s not sexy compared to the rest of the guys on the list.  I also like Edgar Renteria to put up very solid numbers and, in deep leagues, I’m kinda intrigued by this Tulowitzki character in Colorado. 

Bust: Look, I love Derek Jeter.  I think he’s gorgeous and would sleep with him after only one beer.  But he’s not going to finish as the 4th ranked player like he did last year.  Derek had a career year last year - his 97 rbis were the most since 1999 (102) and a +27 and +19 improvement over the past two years, his 34 stolen bases were a career high and 20 more than last year and 11 more than the year before, and his .344 average was his highest since 1999 (.349) after batting .309 in 2005 and .292 in 2004.  Draft him, but expect more like 115-12-70-20-.310, not 118-14-97-34-.344.  Impressive, but not quite the same. 

THIRD BASE
1) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
2) David Wright (NYM)
3) Miguel Cabrera (Fla)
4) Aramis Ramirez (ChC)
5) Garrett Atkins (Col)
6) Ryan Zimmerman (Was)
7) Chone Figgins (LAA)
8) Troy Glaus (Tor)
9) Chipper Jones (Atl)
10) Chad Tracy (Ari)
11) Scott Rolen (Stl)
12) Alex Gordon (KC)

Analysis: Like 1B, there’s a major glut of power at the top – those first five guys should all be gone by the start of the fourth round, and the top three should be gone by the middle of the second.  I may take some flack for putting Cabrera, who is undoubtedly the superior hitter, behind Wright, but my logic is that a) Wright steals more and b) Wright is in a better lineup.  Also, have you seen David Wright?  He’s fucking beautiful.

(This is getting very gay, very quickly.)   

Sleeper: I love Alex Gordon but I’m not in love with him – both he and Mark Teahan could have 90-20-90-10-.290 seasons.  Also pretty into Adrian Beltre and Joe Crede, but if your league counts OBP that could be a problem.

Bust: No one really jumps out at me as a bust, but I guess the closest would be Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones, since they’re both very fragile.  However, that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t draft them; I would just make sure the guys ahead of them are already gone. 

(How is that for analysis?)

OUTFIELD (or "The Section that Took Me Seven Hours")
1) Alfonso Soriano (ChC)
2) Carlos Beltran (NYM)
3) Carl Crawford (TB)
4) Vladimir Guerrero (LAA)
5) Lance Berkman (Hou)
6) Matt Holliday (Col)
7) Grady Sizemore (Cle)
8) Jason Bay (Pit)
9) Manny Ramirez (Bos)
10) Carlos Lee (Hou)
11) Bobby Abreu (NYY)
12) Andrew Jones (Atl)
13) Ichiro Suzuki (Sea)
14) Jermaine Dye (ChW)
15) Vernon Wells (Tor)
16) Johnny Damon (NYY)
17) Gary Sheffield (Det)
18) Hideki Matsui (NYY)
19) Adam Dunn (Cin)
20) JD Drew (Bos)
21) Chone Figgins (LAA)
22) Nick Swisher (Oak)
23) Rocco Baldelli (TB)
24) Torii Hunter (Min)
25) Alex Rios (Tor)
26) Jeff Francoeur (Atl)
27) Michael Cuddyer (Min)
28) Pat Burrell (Phi)
29) Barry Bonds (SF)
30) Magglio Ordonez (Det)

Analysis: I could have kept ranking up to about 60, but I had to stop myself lest I have an apoplectic seizure.  To me, guys 1-5 on that list are A guys, 6-12 are B, and the rest are C.  You need at least one guy from Group A or B to give your OF some punch.  This is how I draft OF spots every year.    

(Oh yeah – Barry Bonds will hit 35 home runs this year.)

Sleeper: So many…Andrew Jones (contract year); Ichiro (contract year); Swisher (quiet, forgotten, spectacular numbers – the average will go up); Mike Cameron (always 20-20); Willy Taveras (could lead the NL in steals); Aaron Rowand (full year could produce 20-20 with a good number of runs); Dave Roberts (fifth in the majors in steals last year – can get him way after Juan Pierre); Moises Alou (career .300 hitter hitting behind Reyes, LoDuca, Beltran and Delgado and in front of David Wright); Kenny Lofton (leading off in Texas is good for 100 runs, 25+ stolen bases); Shane Victorino (should steal 30 bases). 

Bust: I’m a little weary of Matt Holliday.  Last year he went 70-22-78-5-.378 at Coors and 49-12-36-5-.280 away. But there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue and he can’t put up good numbers again (unless he gets traded or something).  Down also on Jermaine Dye, just because I don’t see him replicating those numbers, and Vernon Wells, who had a career year last year and got his mega-contract.  And while we’re here, JD Drew (he’s a pussy, so good luck with the Boston media, and injury prone); Chris Duncan (don’t see him hitting 30 homers); and Gary Matthews (don’t think I needed to tell you that one). 

STARTING PITCHER
1) Johan Santana (Min)
2) Carlos Zambrano (ChC)
3) Roy Oswalt (Hou)
4) Chris Carpenter (Stl)
5) Brandon Webb (Ari)
6) Jake Peavy (SDG)
7) Roy Halladay (Tor)
8) John Smoltz (Atl)
9) CC Sabetha (Cle)
10) Brett Myers (Phi)
11) Jeremy Bonderman (Det)
12) Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos)
13) Aaron Harang (Cin)
14) John Lackey (LAA)
15) Felix Hernandez (Sea)
16) Jason Schmidt (LAA)
17) Andy Pettite (NYY)
18) Ben Sheets (Mil)
19) Erik Bedard (Bal)
20) Scott Kazmir (TB)
21) Dan Haren (Oak)
22) Cole Hamels (Phi)
23) Matt Cain (SF)
24) Chris Young (SDG) 
25) Bronson Arroyo (Cin) 
26) Dontrelle Willis (Fla)
27) Curt Schilling (Bos)
28) Jonathan Papelbon (Bos)
29) Josh Beckett (Bos)
30) Mike Mussina (NYY)

Analysis: Like OF, I could have gone on forever here.  What interests me the most about pitchers this is the lack of dominant guys but the depth of decent guys.  This is my seventh year of doing fantasy baseball, and there’s never been a more appropriate year to stack up on offense and go after pitchers late; long gone are the days of drafting Pedro, Randy, Schilling, Schmidt and Santana all before the end of the second.  This year, I’ll take bats and won’t take Halladay in the third if I can get Pettite in the 8th and Beckett in the 11th.     

Sleeper: I’m kinda running out of gas and my eyes are starting to bleed, so I’ll just list some names: Bonderman, Schmidt, Zito, Randy Johnson, Glavine.  Worth noting is that any of the guys listed 18-23, with the exception of Danny Haren, could win a Cy Young in the next three years.  For what it’s worth, Dice-K will go 15 wins, 200 K’s, 4.00 ERA.   

Bust: Same as above: Carpenter, Papelbon, Jered Weaver, Verlander, Wang.  I’m also terrified of Curt Schilling.  I mean that literally – he’s 300 pounds. 

RELIEF PITCHER  
1) Francisco Rodriguez (LAA)
2) Joe Nathan (Min)
3) Billy Wagner (NYM)
4) BJ Ryan (Tor)
5) Mariano Rivera (NYY)
6) Huston Street (Oak)
7) Trevor Hoffman (SDG)
8) JJ Putz (Sea)
9) Bobby Jenks (ChW)
10) Chad Cordero (Was)
11) Chris Ray (Bal)
12) Tom Gordon (Phi)
13) Takashi Saito (LAD)
14) Brian Fuentes (Col)
15) Bob "Hoagie" Wickman (Atl)
16) Jason Isringhausen (Stl)
17) Todd Jones (Det)
18) Ryan Dempster (ChC)

Analysis: I stopped at 18, because the way I see it, these guys are (relatively) safe in that no one is on the horizon, ready to take their job.  It’s hard to predict sleepers and busts with closers, because one bad week by a closer can get him removed from the job.  Interesting potential high-risk/high-reward picks are Brad Lidge (who’s getting lit up this spring) and Eric Gagne (who just started pitching in spring training today – gave up a leadoff homer but retired the next three batters). 

Drafting closers changes from owner to owner.  If you’re one of those guys who watches the 2am Sportscenter to pick up the latest hot hand, you’re better off drafting lesser closers in later rounds and keeping on top of the waiver wire.  However, I know a number of guys who prefer to take F-Rod or Nathan in the fourth, Ray or Cordero in the 10th, and not have to worry about saves.  To each his own, but I prefer the former strategy. 

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So that’s it.  I need a fucking nap.  I mean, wow.

I will say this, however: I just read over this preview and unlike last year, when I fudged a little here and there, knowing that guys in my league read this post, this particular preview is pretty much straight dirt.  These rankings came right off my cheat sheets.  So while I’m sure I’ll get a number of emails pissed at me for a) writing about sports or b) arguing about the rankings, at least know that every competitor in each of the three drafts I have in the next week are going to know exactly who I like and who I don’t like.

But sometimes you have to make sacrifices for art.