2007 fantasy football primer
Gentlemen and ladies, it’s one of the most wonderful times of the year – fantasy football drafting season.
Regular readers of this site know that I’m a bit obsessed with fantasy sports. I’m the commissioner of a league called Iron Sheik involving ten of my buddies. We’re now on our 7th year of playing together, and this football league represents our 23rd (we do baseball, football and basketball). And simply put, I am really good at fantasy sports. I’ve won four titles in the IS league with a fifth on the way (this year’s baseball) and have finished in the top three 10 times. So while I may not be an "expert", this advice is as good as any you’ll find, I think.
But enough small talk – let’s get to the good shit. First my general draft tips, then position-by-position breakdowns.
Draft Tips
1) Do your research. This may seem obvious, but if you wing it, you’ll lose. Sure, anyone with a fundamental knowledge of football can navigate through the first few rounds, but what happens in round 8 when you’re looking for a 3rd receiver and are deciding between Donte Stallworth and Mark Clayton?
At the very least, visit the fantasy sections of ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS Sportsline to get a general idea of two things: what statistics players put up last year and where players are being drafting. Yeah, odds are good that Peyton Manning will have around 30 TDs and he’s a high pick, but what about a guy like Phillip Rivers? Where’s he being drafted in relation to John Kitna or Vince Young?
Go into the draft with some stuff printed out with last year’s stats. That’ll give you a cheat sheet to look over during the draft. Additionally, I like to highlight certain guys I like, making notes on the side. Do whatever makes you comfortable, but you should have a little bit of paperwork to refer to during the draft and to keep you grounded.
2) Lie and manipulate. If you are in a league with friends, constantly engage them in conversations before the draft. Feel them out about their battle plans, who they like, etc and reciprocate with information that is entirely false. The important thing is to be sincere and seem honest. A good way to do this is by saying stuff like, "You know, I don’t even know if I should tell you this, but I think John Kitna is going to blow up this year" when you secretly think his shoulders going to detach from his body in Week 3.
Say you have the 6th pick in the first round, and your buddy has the 5th. You really, really want Frank Gore, but think your buddy at 5 is going to take him. The solution: talk up another player. "Dude, I love Addai. I love him in that Colts offense this year. But c’mon – don’t take him, dude. I’m calling dibbs on him." More than likely, your buddy at 5 will take Addai, in the hopes of screwing you over, and you’ll get Gore. Remember, the other owners in your league are just as soulless as you are, just much, much dumber. The point is, NEVER show your true hand. Flaunt your fake hand constantly.
3) Don’t panic, and start or stay off the waves. Countless mistakes are made during the draft because the manager was panicking. Don’t be like this. As your pick comes back to you, be sure to have at least two choices ready. This way, if the guy ahead of you takes the player you wanted, you don’t make a rash decision and end up taking a kicker in the 5th round.
A good deal of draft panic derives from position runs. This happens when a number of players of the same position are selected in a row, causing owners to think, "Holy crap! All the [QBs, WRs, TEs, etc] are going! I have to get one now!" The result is that they wind up with a not-as-good player, because they jumped on the wave too late.
My advice is to either stay off these or start them. I usually stay off rather than start them, just because it’s easier. But say you’re in the third round, and the guy a few picks before you takes Donovan McNabb. Then the next guy takes Marc Bulger. Then the next guy takes Vince Young or Matt Hasselbeck or someone. Then it’s on. You’ll see a flurry of managers selecting QBs that shouldn’t be selected. In this situation, I would back off, take a RB or star WR, and wait a few rounds before taking a serviceable QB (Kitna, Cutler, etc).
Runs or waves most often happen late in the draft when people pick kickers or defenses. I usually completely ignore these, preferring instead to take a third RB or another QB. Which brings us to…
4) Fuck tight ends, kickers, and defenses. Simply put, these don’t matter very much. There’s something to be said for having Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, but if you don’t get them in round 4 or 5, forget it. In a 16 round draft, I won’t take these three positions until rounds 12-16. And even then I don’t put much thought into it. I’d rather pick up a different defense every week and draft a backup RB with starting potential than take the Pittsburgh defense in the 8th.
5) Know your enemy. When you’re picking, it’s important to know who the managers around you already have on their teams. For example, say you have the 8th pick in a 10 person league. It’s the 3rd round, and you’re really looking for a QB, but you see that a nice WR has fallen to you. Check to see who the 9th and 10th owners have. If they already have a QB, take the WR with your 3rd round choice and then get the QB on the wrap in the 4th round, following the logic that if the guys picking after you already have a QB, they’re not going to take another one. This knowledge is key.
6) Think "best available." I’m all for filling out your roster positions, but at the same time I adhere to the principle of "best available," meaning take the best available player, regardless of position. For example, say by the 3rd round I’ve drafted two quality RBs and a decent QB. In round 4, if I see another very good RB who I think has lasted too long, I will take him over a WR that I have less confidence in. Sure, it means that I have one RB too many, but it also means that my competitor won’t have this RB on his team. It’s a wise decision to draft best available because it means a) you’ll have trade bait and b) it’s offensive by being defensive.
7) Handcuff, handcuff, handcuff. Spend the last few rounds making sure you draft the backups of your marquee players. Players get hurt and their backups step up and often times play well (especially in the case of RBs and, to a less extent, QBs).
So there are your tips. Now onto the positions.
[Note: We will assume that this is a standard scoring league with ten teams playing head-to-head, the position break-down being: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB, K, DEF. "Sleepers" and "busts" mean that I think relative to where these players are being drafted, they will perform better or worse. If I say that Peyton Manning is a potential bust, I don't mean that I think he's going to throw for 6 TDs and 20 INTs. I mean that he ain't gonna perform like a #4 overall pick. Dig? Spaces between players indicate tiers.]
QUARTERBACK
1 Peyton Manning, Ind
2 Carson Palmer, Cin
3 Drew Brees, NO
4 Tom Brady, NE
5 Donovan McNabb, Phi
6 Marc Bulger, StL
7 Philip Rivers, SD
8 Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
9 Jon Kitna, Det
10 Vince Young, Ten
11 Jay Cutler, Den
12 Matt Leinart, Ari
13 Brett Favre, GB
14 Eli Manning, NYG
15 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
16 Trent Green, Mia
17 J.P. Losman, Buf
18 Byron Leftwich, Jac
19 Steve McNair, Bal
20 Alex Smith, SF
Most leagues play one QB, so the position is almost an afterthought. According to Yahoo standard scoring, 10 of the top 20 point scorers last year were QBs (8 were RBs and 2 - Harrison and Owens – were WR). If you’re in a one QB league, you have the time to wait around for your top guy. If you’re in a two QB league, it might make sense to grab two top-flight QBs early, as the QB position – even more than the RB position – is the bread winner of the fantasy team. This year, I think it’s become clear that Peyton is the undisputed #1 fantasy QB, but there’s not much difference to me between Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger. I would strongly advise grabbing one of those top six guys, as there is quite a bit of a drop off after that.
Potential Sleepers: I am in love with Philip Rivers this year, and not just because he’s boyishly handsome. SD has a very good team again, and Rivers put up very nice numbers (a 92.0 rating) in his first year in the system and at just 25 years old. In deeper leagues, I like Byron Leftwich (he has something to prove), Trent Green (ditto), and Alex Smith (another young, developing QB).
Potential Busts: I’m not really sold on Matt Leinart (although he too is handsome, but more in a devilish than boyish way), and I think a lot of people are jocking John Kitna because he has Roy Williams, that white guy, and Calvin Johnson to throw to. I could be wrong, because I know both those guys will be throwing a lot this year, but I think they’re being drafted too high.
Guys Who Might Kill Me Because I Hate Them: Eli. God, I hate this whiny bitch, in no small part because I’m 70% sure I could beat him in a fight. Part of me thinks he could tank, but another part of me (the Eagles fan part) wouldn’t be surprised if he threw for 28 TDs, 4000 yards, and led the Giants to an 11-5 record. Still, I hate him.
RUNNING BACK
1 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
2 Steven Jackson, StL
3 Larry Johnson, KC
4 Joseph Addai, Ind
5 Frank Gore, SF
6 Shaun Alexander, Sea
7 Rudi Johnson, Cin
8 Brian Westbrook, Phi
9 Willie Parker, Pit
10 Travis Henry, Den
11 Laurence Maroney, NE
12 Reggie Bush, NO
13 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac
14 Ronnie Brown, Mia
15 Willis McGahee, Bal
16 Clinton Portis, Was
17 Deuce McAllister, NO
18 Cedric Benson, Chi
19 Thomas Jones, NYJ
20 Edgerrin James, Pho
21 Brandon Jacobs, NYG
22 Marshawn Lynch, Buf
23 Cadillac Williams, TB
24 Marion Barber, Dal
25 Ahman Green, Hou
26 Jamal Lewis, Cle
27 Jerious Norwood, Atl
28 Chester Taylor, Min
29 Fred Taylor, Jac
30 DeAngelo Willams, Car
31 Brandon Jackson, GB
The situations in Atlanta, Dallas, Minnesota and Carolina (and to a lesser extent Washington and Jacksonville and possibly even with the Giants) are a mess for fantasy owners. What I’m going to target this year are guys who are clearly their team’s starter AND goal line back (I rate Reggie Bush at 12 because I expect him to improve on his rookie season, like his pass catching abilities, and the NO offense is so good it’s an exception to this rule). Ideally, you’re looking for two of the top 16 guys on this list, but I think there are some bargains to be had later on.
Potential Sleepers: Travis Henry (a power runner who should succeed in Denver’s system and be around in the early second round), Willis McGahee (wasn’t he the #4 overall pick two years ago), Clinton Portis (ditto, but with some health issues), Marshawn Lynch (just a good feeling about him), Cadillac Williams (he’s only 25 and has a semi-decent QB this year), Jerious Norwood (much more big play potential than aging, little Dunn) and Lamont Jordan (why not?).
Potential Busts: A lot of people are all over Larry Johnson because of his boatload of carries and long holdout, and I think these concerns are valid. I’m a little concerned about Maroney’s health issues and his first year as a full time back, and so will probably stay away from him in most leagues. I also think that the Bears are going to be a bad football team this year and Cedric Benson is not going to help with that.
Guys Who Might Kill Me Because I Hate Them: None really stick out, although for some reason I’m very anti-Willie Parker and I have no idea why. I also hate Ahman Green for destroying several teams of mine a few years ago and wouldn’t be suprised if he has a very nice season.
WIDE RECEIVER
1 Steve Smith, Car
2 Marvin Harrison, Ind
3 Chad Johnson, Cin
4 Torry Holt, StL
5 Terrell Owens, Dal
6 Reggie Wayne, Ind
7 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari
8 Roy Williams, Det
9 Anquan Boldin, Ari
10 Lee Evans, Buf
11 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin
12 Javon Walker, Den
13 Andre Johnson, Hou
14 Donald Driver, GB
15 Randy Moss, NE
16 Marques Colston, NO
17 Chris Chambers, Mia
18 Hines Ward, Pit
19 Plaxico Burress, NYG
20 Santana Moss, Was
21 Laverneus Coles, NYJ
22 Darrell Jackson, SF
23 Terry Glenn, Dal
24 Reggie Brown, Phi
25 Deion Branch, Sea
26 Joey Galloway, TB
27 Braylon Edwards, Cle
28 Mark Clayton, Bal
29 Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
30 Vincent Jackson, SD
31 Kevin Curtis, Phi
Ah, the wide receiver position, always year in and year out a crap shoot. You’ve got the guys you know are gonna be good (#1-6) but then a bunch of guys who have very little consistency and could give you 80 catches for 1100 yards and 12 TDs, or score four times. I hate this position. Draft your two or three RBs first, but then try to get three of the top 21 listed above.
Potential Sleepers: I like Andre Johnson in Houston with Schaub as his new QB and Kevin Walter, who I’ve been hearing good things about, starting next to him. I like Chris Chambers, though I feel like I say this every year, but perhaps this is finally the year he rises to the top with Trent Green throwing to him. I like Anthony Gonzalez as the slot receiver in Indy. I don’t think he’s nailed down that role but I think he could, and that means he could be good for 6 or so TDs, which wouldn’t be bad for your fourth receiver. I like Joey Galloway, too.
Potential Busts: I’m down on the Cardinals receivers, as I’m down on their QB. I don’t think Colston’s numbers will be as gaudy and there’s a great chance he gets drafted too high in your league, as I still have that "7th round pick out of Hofstra!" angle burned into my brain.
Guys Who Might Kill Me Because I Hate Them: Man, I know the temptation with Moss is there, but I’m just not feeling it. I still have trouble envisioning Moss as a success on this New England team. I think he’ll play well enough, but we’re talking 900 yards, 6 TDs well. I know I may eat these words, but that’s how I’m feeling right now. Also, I obviously hate TO. Like, a whole lot.
TIGHT END
1 Antonio Gates, SD
2 Tony Gonzalez, KC
3 Todd Heap, Bal
4 Jeremy Shockey, NYG
5 Alge Crumpler, Atl
6 Chris Cooley, Was
7 Kellen Winslow, Cle
8 Vernon Davis, SF
9 Jason Witten, Dal
10 L.J. Smith, Phi
11 Ben Watson, NE
12 Heath Miller, Pit
13 Owen Daniels, Hou
14 Ben Troupe, Ten
15 Daniel Graham, Den
After Gates, there is some decent depth – a guy like Jason Whitten, who could produce six TDs fairly easily, could be available in round 12 or so. My philosophy on TE stays the same: if I can’t get Gates, I’ll take one late.
Potential Sleepers: LJ Smith is a bit hurt right now and many are down on him, meaning he could slip farther than he should. I would happily take a flyer on Vernon Davis based on his potential. When is Ben Watson going to have his 10 TD season?
Potential Busts: It’s hard to call any of these guys busts, because they’re generally low performing anyway. If anything, I’d stay away from Tony Gonzalez, just because he’s another year older and KC scares me with all their question marks on offense.
Guys Who Might Kill Me Because I Hate Them: I hate Shockey but I don’t fear him – it’s obvious what he’s going to produce.
KICKER
1 Adam Vinatieri, Ind
2 Nate Keading, SD
3 Shayne Graham, Cin
4 Robbie Gould, Chi
5 Neil Rackers, Ari
6 David Akers, Phi
7 Josh Brown, Sea
8 Jason Elam, Den
9 Josh Scobee, Jac
10 Matt Stover, Bal
I won’t do sleepers and busts with kickers, because, c’mon, they’re kickers. My two rules for picking a kicker are to pick one that a) that plays with a team with a high-powered offense; b) to plays on a team in nice weather. But again, this is such a crapshoot – the highest scoring kicker in 2006 was Robbie Gould; in 2005, Neil Rackers; in 2004, Adam Vinatieri – that a kicker should not be drafted until the last or second to last round.
DEFENSE
1 Bears
2 Ravens
3 Patriots
4 Chargers
5 Eagles
6 Broncos
7 Dolphins
8 Cowboys
9 Steeler
10 Jaguars
More important than kickers but more difficult to predict are defenses. Unless you use some crazy scoring systems, the most important indicator of a good fantasy defense is how many TDs it scores (whereas in the NFL defenses are ranked on yards allowed). How the hell can you guess how many TDs a defense will score? Frustrating owners further is that statistically, there is only a slight (or at least erratic) correlation between the NFL’s best defenses and fantasy’s. Fuck. So use this list, use another list, or just make it the fuck up: as long as you don’t take a defense too early, we can still be friends.
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There’s your 2007 fantasy football primer. I apologize for any misspellings, but it pretty much took me forever to write this baby and I’m not running the spellcheck through it because of all the names.
I need a nap. Be back tomorrow.








