Ladies and gentlemen, you’ve been asking about it for weeks and it’s finally here: my 2008 fantasy baseball preview.

If you’re familiar with the site, you know what I’m going to do, since I do it each year.  The following preview applies to roto drafts (fuck off, auction people) in a standard 5×5 category leagues: runs, rbis, home runs, stolen bases, and average on offense; wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP for pitching.  I will confess that because in my two main leagues we use OBP instead of average and total bases instead of home runs, I may be biased a little bit and offer insight in line with that bias.

Before we get to the position-by-position breakdown, some general, timeless, and possibly extremely obvious rules about drafting:

1) Know your enemy.  Certain owners have certain inclinations.  For example, if you’re drafting with a bunch of guys from Boston, you can probably expect that Ortiz, Manny and Beckett (and Papelbon – especially Papelbon) will go off the board sooner than they should.  Alternatively, you might know that some guys favor offense to pitchers, or don’t care about closers, or will stop at nothing to get David Wright on their roster because they have a man-crush on him (Site Guy Brendan, I’m looking in your direction).  Knowing whom you’re drafting against, when possible, is important in determining how to draft your team.  

2) Know your categories.  This only applies to those that are not in standard 5×5 leagues (again, 5×5 meaning Runs, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, Average and Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP).  Some leagues only have minor changes; for example, as mentioned above, my main league uses on-base percentage instead of average and total bases instead of home runs, which makes for a much better league in our opinion.

But what you have to watch for duplicative categories.  For example, in another league I’m in, the categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, and OPS.  This means that power hitters should be especially favored in this league, for every time a power hitter hits a home run, it will affect R, HR, RBI, AVG, and OPS.  That’s five different categories.  I was even in a league once in which both strikeouts and strikeouts/9 innings were categories, so of course those high-K guys were doubly valuable.        

3) Embrace the home run.  Here’s something very simple that took me many seasons to finally realize: when in doubt, take the power hitter.  You can’t think of home runs as a single category, since every home run directly results in one run, at least one RBI, and a help in average.  Each homer affects four categories.  Some people will get cutesy and draft speed guys (affects SB and possibly average and runs) or high average guys (will affect average and potentially runs and rbis), but let them.  One home run is a guaranteed benefit for three other categories.  If you have a lot of power, you will have a lot of HR, runs, and RBIs (and as long as your team isn’t full of Adam Dunn’s, then your average shouldn’t be too bad either).  Let the other guy grab Carl Crawford, he who’s averaged 15 home runs and 80 RBIs the last three years, with his 9th pick; you grab Prince Fielder, with his 45+ homer/120+ RBI potential, with your 10th.    

4) Embrace the K.  I wrote a bit about this two years ago, when a reader took me to task for leaving Roy Halladay off my end of season Top 25 players (turns out that he stunk the next year and I was right).  To recap, I wrote: 

Few roto baseball players realize that having a pitcher on your team with a low K/9 rate actually hurts your team.  To prove this, let’s take one of my leagues from this year.  Each of the eleven teams maxed out their allotted 1400 innings.  The person who "won" strikeouts, getting 11 points in that category, finished the year 1242 strikeouts.  That’s an eyelash under 8 K/9.  The person in the middle (earning a 6) averaged 6.9 K/9 and the person in last (getting a 1) averaged 6 K/9.

Roy Halladay threw 220 innings and struck out only 132.  That’s only 5.4 K/9, well under the average for a typical last place finisher in strikeouts in any roto league.  So if you draft Halladay, you’re putting yourself in the red for K’s.  And as he will likely be your first pitcher taken, you will need to subsequently draft many high K guys, which might be difficult, as these guys typically go off the board faster than other pitchers.  And if you pick up another low K guy – Wang (3.13 K/9), Garland (4.77 K/9) and Kenny Rogers (4.36 K/9) all finished in the top three in the major leagues in wins, but were downright embarrassing in the K department – you’re basically submarining your team and guaranteeing a finish in the bottom three in strikeouts. 

The references are a little dated since it was two years ago, but the point remains the same.  I don’t need to tell you that taking a pitcher with a high-K rate is better than taking one with a low-K rate; of course you’re going to take Carlos Zambrano over Derek Lowe.  But what I’m suggesting is that it might be worthwhile to took a flier on a young, high-K guy with potential (Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Dustin McGowan and my boy Ian Snell come to mind) over vets who will give you good stuff, but nothing spectacular (like Brad Penny, Lowe, Tim Hudson or Halladay). 

[And I realize the contradiction here: in one point, I espousing the home run, as it affects four categories.  In the next, I'm advocating strikeout guys, strikeouts being just one category.  My defense is that you can't compare offense and pitching drafting strategies.  I'm not saying that you should abandon the other pitching peripherals, but rather suggesting that if given the choice between two similar options, always take the K guy.  Whereas in offense, I'm saying that you should almost forsake speed and go like a hawk from hell after power hitters.  Dig?]

5) Know when to draft and when to pass.  People forget that the most important rule of any fantasy draft, much like the most important rule of love, is that the right person comes along at the right time.

An example will help.  I really like James Loney this year.  I think he’s going to be terrific hitting in that lineup, possibly as good as a B/B+ Todd Helton (in his prime) – I would not be surprised with something like 100-28-110-2-.320, which are lovely, lovely numbers.  Optimistic, yes.  But not entirely unreasonable. 

But that doesn’t mean that I’m going to take Loney in the fourth round of my draft, because I won’t have to take him then.  I know (or rather, I’m confident in betting) that other guys in my league are not as high on Loney as I am, and will take guys like Konerko, Swisher, Delgado and a host of others not just ahead of him, but waaaay ahead of him.  So instead of taking Loney early, I will wait on him until later in the draft when I feel it is the right time to take him.  Until that time comes, I’m going to draft other guys I like, who I know are on my competitors’ radar screens, either because they’re highly ranked, highly touted, or they have said that they like that player. 

So I will meet James Loney early in the draft, and though I may be enamored with him, I will have to let him go and set him free.  If he comes back to me later, say in the 14th or 16th round, well, then it’s really meant to be.  And we will be together.  Forever.  Or at least until the end of the season. 

6) Early on, don’t go crazy on the young or the old.  An immutable law of life is that young people need time to grow into their abilities, and as we get older, our skills decline.  Applied to fantasy baseball, that means in the first five rounds of a fantasy draft, I will try – to the extent possible – to steer clear of younger, less experienced/proven players and veterans with years and years (and years) of mileage.  Practically speaking, that means that I will generally not use any of my first five picks on Ryan Braun, Brandon Phillips, Manny Ramirez, BJ Upton, Curtis Granderson, Troy Tulowitzki, John Smoltz, and Felix Hernandez, to name a few.  These guys are players who I don’t feel comfortable taking high in a draft and building my team around.  While again, this isn’t a hard and fast rule – if Ryan Braun, who’s generally ranked as the 14th best player, falls to me in the 4th round, I’ll take him – I’m saying that all things being equal, I will stay away from this guys, take a similar, more-proven or not as old commodity, and let someone else deal with them.

*****************************

I’ll pick the top few at each position (based on Yahoo position eligibility), give a little analysis, and then name sleepers and busts.  I realize that "sleepers" and "busts" are objective, but I’ll define a sleeper as someone whose performance will exceed his draft position and a bust as someone who won’t live up to his draft position.  Since the tier system as recently become very popular, I will not just break down players by rank number but by tier as well.  Let’s go.

CATCHER
1) Victor Martinez (Cle)
2) Russell Martin (LAD)
——
3) Joe Mauer (Min)
4) Brian McCann (Atl)
5) Jorge Posada (NYY)
——
6) Ivan Rodríguez (Det)
7) Geovany Soto (ChC)
8) Kenji Johjima (Sea)
9) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex)
10) Bengie Molina (SF)
11) Jason Varitek (Bos)
12) A.J. Pierzynski (ChW)

Analysis: Here’s the thing with catcher: if you miss out on one of those first five guys, you have a choice.  You can either take an established vet, who’s got the starting gig and will almost definitely put up something like 50-12-60-0-.250 (i.e. Pudge, Johjima, Molina, Varitek, A.J. Pierzynski, LoDuca, etc) or you can take a younger guy with more potential – sometimes much more potential – but who may not even have the starting gig and will possibly split time or spend time in the minors (Soto, Saltalamacchia, Napoli, Towles, Suzuki, etc).

Ever since I started playing fantasy baseball, I was of the mindset of, "Give me LoDuca in the 21st, thank you very much."  But just this past season, I’ve begun to alter my stance.  If the average catcher’s numbers in a 12 team league (so we’re including the five big guys, as well as the shittiest of the bunch) is something like 50-10-55-0-.260, and you have a guy who puts up 70-20-85-5-.290, you have a big advantage over your competitors.  In no other position is there such a great disparity between what the average catcher numbers are and what the average Big 5 numbers are.  So unlike a lot of other fantasy experts, I think it is certainly worth it to grab a good catcher.  The only catch (no pun intended) is that you must be careful not to do this too early.  I would value the Big 5 (in a 12 team league) as follows: Martinez in the mid 4th, Martin late 4th/early 5th, Mauer mid 6th, McCann late 6th, Posada early-mid 7th.  Those are rough guidelines, but I think it’s more than appropriate to grab one of the Big 5 in that draft position.    

Sleeper: Geovany Soto was the Class AAA Pacific Coast League MVP last year, batting .353 with 109 RBIs.  How can you not take a chance on this guy over someone like Johjima or Varitek?  Sure, he may struggle and he doesn’t even definitely have the job, but the potential reward is too great to pass up.  Of the more named stars, Joe Mauer’s injury history is really scaring people off, but this guy is a special player who won the batting title two years ago.  Don’t let him fall too late – 24 year-old catchers who can hit .340 are hard to come by, even if they do miss games.

Bust: Russell Martin in 85 games before the All-Star break: 51-11-60-15-.306 (caught stealing 3 times).  Martin in 66 games after the break: 36-8-27-5-.275 (caught stealing 6 times).  I don’t pay too much attention to second-half surges, since come September the competition is for the most part weaker, as teams call up younger players, especially pitchers, to run them out to see what they’ve got.  And while I’m won’t turn totally doomsday about second half slumps, I still place value in them.  I don’t think Martin will be terrible, but if anything I expect similar or lesser numbers than those he put up last year.  I know the SBs are key from the catcher position, but those taking Martin over Victor Martinez, who’s averaged 78-20-96-0-.307 and 149 games over the last three years, are crazy.  Stone crazy.  I’d rather pass on Martin and grab Mauer/McCann/Posada two or three rounds later.  Worth mentioning is that though I think he’ll be fine, there’s no way Jorge’s putting up numbers like he did last year.  But you should already know that.  C’mon.

FIRST BASE
1) Ryan Howard (Phi)
2) David Ortiz (Bos)
3) Prince Fielder (Mil)
4) Albert Pujols (StL)
——
5) Mark Teixiera (Atl)
6) Lance Berkman (Hou)
7) Travis Hafner (Cle)
8) Justin Morneau (Min)
——
9) Carlos Pena (TB)
10) Derrick Lee (Chi)
11) Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
12) Victor Martinez (Cle)
13) Carlos Guillen (Det)
14) Garrett Atkins (Col)
——
15) Todd Helton (Col)
16) Nick Swisher (ChW)
17) James Loney (LAD)
18) Paul Konerko (ChW)
19) Alex Gordon (KC)
20) Ryan Garko (Cle)
21) Adam Larouche (Pit)
22) Carlos Delgado (NYM)
23) Chris Duncan (StL)
24) Joey Votto (Cin)
25) Mark Teahan (KC)

Analysis: Ah, 1B – the deepest of all positions.  Really, as long as your starting 1B is one of those top 14 guys, you should be in good shape.  Because of this, and because I’ll usually walk out of a draft with three or four guys who are 1B-eligible, I really don’t place too much emphasis on 1B.  That being said, Ryan Howard, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are all first round picks (maybe Fielder slides to early second), and everyone is the top eight should be gone by the early third round.  Personally, if I’m walking out a draft with one of the top eight and then Loney and Teahan, I’m feeling pretty good about that.    

Sleeper: Travis Hafner had a bad year last year and people are avoiding him like the plague.  Especially if you’re an OBP league, do not let this guy slip too far – two years ago he hit 42 homers with a .429 (!) OBP.  Konerko also had a bad year and is a tremendous value pick for as late as he goes.  Alex Gordon was extremely hyped last year and has been totally forgetten this year, and I like Mark Teahan as well.  People are all up on Nick Swisher, but maybe it’s me, because I just don’t see it.  And of course, I talked about James Loney above.    

Bust: Here are three people that I can guarantee will not end up on any of my teams: Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado.  Pujols is just about the only hope in St. Louis and everything I hear about his health is bad.  They look like a 75-win team this year, so why not let him have whatever surgeries and/or rest he needs to protect his future?  Pena had a monster year, but I’m not using any of my first six round picks on him.  Just not.  Don’t trust him.  Can’t tell you why.  Some people see Delgado as a value pick – bum hip and all, he’s still hitting around Reyes, Wright, Beltran, etc.  Maybe, but not me.  Again, I could be wrong about each of these guys, but given the depth of options are 1B, I’m not going to take them.  

SECOND BASE
1) Chase Utley (Phi)
——
2) BJ Upton (TB)
3) Brandon Phillips (Cle)
4) Brian Roberts (Bal)
——
5) Robinson Cano (NYY)
6) Chone Figgins (LAA)
7) Ian Kinsler (Tex)
8) Dan Uggla (Fla)
——
9) Rickie Weeks (Mil)
10) Howie Kendrick (LAA)
11) Plácido Polanco (Det)
12) Dustin Pedroia (Bos)
13) Kelly Johnson (Atl)
14) Aaron Hill (Tor)
15) Jeff Kent (LAD)

Analysis: Call me a homer, and call me biased because I have him in my keeper league, but Chase Utley is so far head and shoulders above the competition that he rightfully deserves his own tier.  Brandon Phillips put up incredible numbers last year, but Utley’s done it for three years now (and he missed 30 games last season!).  I like Upton in his last year of 2B eligibility and though I think his average drops, I think 28-28 is a fair guess at his first full season.  If Brian Roberts leads off in Chicago, he becomes more valuable.  2B is deeper than people realize; it’s only after the first three tiers that things get a little shaky.  Do Weeks and Kendrick finally explode?  Or is it wiser and safer to go with Polanco and Pedroia, from whom you know what you’re gonna get?

Sleeper: I have been on Rickie Weeks for so long, it’d be unfair for me to abandon him when he may actually put together a decent year.  Kelly Johnson has a lot of potential for someone you can get very late in a draft.

Bust: Brandon Phillips.  I’m sorry, but stop this train, because I’m getting off.  Yeah, he went 30-30 last year, which is legit from the second base spot.  But you’re talking about a guy who’s shown very little to this point in his major league career and who in 2700+ at bats in the minors hit 67 home runs and stole 107 bases.  To put that in perspective, in his career year last Phillips had 650 at bats, so using this as a basis, an average season in his minor league career would look like 16 home runs and 26 steals – nearly exactly his numbers in 2006, his only other full season in the bigs, when he hit 17 home runs and had 25 steals.  He may be a fine or even good and pull a 20-20+ season, but I suggest that if you have the 25th pick in the draft, please don’t use it on him.  Take Lance Berkman or Mark Teixiera and grab Robby Cano three or four rounds later.  Let Phillips be someone else’s worry.

SHORTSTOP
1) Hanley Ramirez (Fla)
2) Jose Reyes (NYM)
3) Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
——
4) Derek Jeter (NYY)
5) Carlos Guillen (Det)
6) Troy Tulowitzki (Col)
——
7) Rafael Furcal (LAD)
8) Miguel Tejada (Hou)
9) Michael Young (Tex)
10) Edgar Renteria (Det)
11) Orlando Cabrera (ChW)
——
12) JJ Hardy (Mil)
13) Khalil Greene (SD)
14) Jhonny Peralta (Cle)
15) Julio Lugo (Bos)

Analysis: Shortstop has, I think, the deepest talent pool of any position aside from 1B.  The good news is that it’s also the easiest to manipulate.  By that I mean that Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins all should be gone by the 9th pick in the draft.  Jeter will go first after that, higher than he should, probably in the late 3rd or early 4th.  Then Tulo and Guillen, in that order, shortly after.  Then no one will draft a shortstop for a long, long time.  Any of those guys in the third tier will put up terrific numbers and can be had as late as the tenth round or after.  Seriously.  I love the Dodgers this year and I think Furcal’s healthy and going to score a lot of runs.  People are terrified of Tejada because of the Mitchell Report and because he was hurt last year, but he’s hitting in a ballpark practically built for him and is batting 5th behind Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee.  How does that sound?  Michael Young, please take your 90-15-90-10-.310 and put it in the bank.  And Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera are terrific options that can be had in the 14th or later.  Seriously.

Sleeper: Well, I kinda blew my load about the sleepers in the above paragraph.  But one last thing: does anyone realize that Khalil Greene is playing in a pitcher’s park and last year put up a nice 89-27-97-4-.254?  Those last two numbers ain’t great, but I’ll take the first three.

Bust: You can probably guess that I’m going to go after Tulowitzki.  Look, I’m all for taking a risk with a young player, but when your options are a young guy like Tulo in the 4th or a steady veteran like Orlando Cabrera in the 14th, I don’t see how anyone can choose the former.  If you go young, do it by drafting a guy like Soto, who can be had in the late, late rounds.  So I give you the same advice I gave about Brandon Phillips: let someone else take him in the 4th and wait to get a proven proven guy 8-10 rounds later.

THIRD BASE
1) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
2) David Wright (NYM)
3) Miguel Cabrera (Det)
————
4) Ryan Braun (Mil)
5) Aramis Ramirez (ChC)
6) Garrett Atkins (Col)
7) Chipper Jones (Atl)
8) Ryan Zimmerman (Was)
9) Chone Figgins (LAA)
————
10) Mike Lowell (Bos)
11) Adrian Beltre (Sea)
12) Kevin Youkilis (Bos)
————
13) Edwin Encarnacion (Cin)
14) Evan Longoria (TB)
15) Josh Fields (ChW)

Analysis: Very top heavy and thin, 3B is.  Those top four guys will be taken in the first 15 picks, then it’s anyone’s guess: I’ve seen Ramirez, who’s typically always the 5th taken, goes as high as the early 3rd and as low as the late 5th.  One thing that can be said is that the top 3 guys are as close to guarantees as you can get, but after that, because of youth/age or health concerns, it gets pretty shakey.

Sleeper: It’s tough to call anyone a sleeper, but two guys who are going much later than they should are Ryan Zimmerman and Chipper Jones.  I think Zimmerman, who’s still only 23 (!), will show improvement this year and he shakes off his minor sophomore slump.  In his last four years, Chipper’s played in 137, 109, 110 and 138 games, but hit 30, 21, 26 and 29 home runs, with very nice peripherals, and last year put up a stellar 108-29-102-5-.337 campaign.  I’m not saying you should count on him for 150+ games, but if you grab him in the eighth and a young guy from that last tier in one of the final rounds, you’ll be in better shape at 3B than most of the teams in your league – and just might snag 30+ homers and a nice average in 162 games from the hot corner.

Bust: I love Ryan Braun and I kept him in my keeper league, but you simply cannot sustain a 1.480 OPS against lefties, even if your name is Ty Cobb or Ted Williams or Ron Christ, Jesus’ sweet-swinging lefty-hitting shortstop brother.  I think he drops off this year, maybe not dramatically, but enough not to warrant your second round pick.  3B isn’t deep, but I’d be happy to take a more secure player in that round and grab another 3B later.

OUTFIELD
1) Matt Holliday (Col)
————
2) Alfonso Soriano (ChC)
3) Carl Crawford (TB)
4) Grady Sizemore (Cle)
5) Vlad Guerrero (LAA)
6) Carlos Beltran (NYM)
7) Ichiro Suzuki (Sea)
8) Magglio Ordonez (Det)
9) Carlos Lee (Hou)
10) Lance Berkman (Hou)
11) Curtis Granderson (Det)
————
12) Manny Ramirez (Bos)
13) BJ Upton (TB)
14) Alex Rios (Tor)
15) Bobby Abreu (NYY)
16) Nick Markakis (Bal)
17) Adam Dunn (Cin)
18) Torii Hunter (LAA)
————
19) Hunter Pence (Hou)
20) Corey Hart (Mil)
21) Gary Sheffield (Det)
22) Brad Hawpe (Col)
23) Eric Brynes (Ari)
24) Chone Figgins (LAA)
25) Chris Young (Ari)
————
26) Hideki Matsui (NYY)
27) Jason Bay (Pit)
28) Vernon Wells (Tor)
29) Andruw Jones (LAD)
————
30) Jeff Francoeur (Atl)
31) Nick Swisher (ChW)
32) Matt Kemp (LAD)
33) Juan Pierre (LAD)
34) Delmon Young (Min)
35) Shane Victorino (Phi)
36) Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos)
37) Kosuke Fukudome (ChC)
38) Josh Hamilton (Tex)
39) Pat Burrell (Phi)
40) Jack Cust (Oak)

Analysis: After Matt Holliday, in that second tier you’re looking at a couple of speedsters who are generally overvalued, a few guys with injury concerns, and two really fat guys who play in Houston.  I love that there are a number of second OFs who are young and show a lot of promise, namely Upton, Rios, Markakis, Pence, Hart and Chris Young – the sky’s the limit and I love all of them, although I’m a bit concerned with Young’s similarity to Mike Cameron.  A general rule I try to follow is that between your three starting OFs, you should ideally walk away with around 70 home runs and 60 steals.  You get this any way you can – three 25-20 guys; two 30 homer guys who’ll steal 10 combined and one speedster, etc – you’ll be set.

(Also, I had to stop at 40 because I’m starting to get dizzy, but there are a number of other guys I like very late, namely Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Nate McLouth, Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Michael Bourn, J.D. Drew, Mark Teahan, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, and if anyone in that LA OF gets hurt, Andre Ethier.)

Sleeper: People who are going later than they should: Magglio, Manny, Torii Hunter, Jason Bay, Pat Burrell.  People I lust after: Markakis, Pence, Hart, Kemp, Ellsbury, Hermida.

Bust: Something about trusting Vlad or Carlos Beltran to anchor my OF scares me a little bit.  Neither Magglio nor Eric Brynes are going to repeat what they did last year, but Magglio should hit .300 with 100 and 100 and Brynes should still steal 35 with pop, so if draft them accordingly.  Alex Rios is going very, very high for a guy with a low walk rate who hasn’t proved he’s more than a 25-15 guy.

STARTING PITCHER
1) Johan Santana (NYM)
————
2) Jake Peavy (SD)
3) Brandon Webb (Ari)
4) CC Sabathia (Cle)
5) Erik Bedard (Sea)
6) Josh Beckett (Bos)
————
7) Cole Hamels (Phi)
8) Justin Verlander (Det)
9) John Lackey (LAA)
10) Dan Haren (Ari)
11) Carlos Zambrano (ChC)
12) Aaron Harang (Cin)
13) John Smoltz (Atl)
14) Chris Young (SD)
15) Scott Kazmir (TB)
————
16) Tim Lincecum (SF)
17) Brett Myers (Phi)
18) Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos)
19) Roy Oswalt (Hou)
20) Felix Hernandez (Sea)
21) Javier Vazquez (ChW)
22) Roy Halladay (Tor)
23) Fausto Carmona (Cle)
————
24) Rich Hill (Chi)
25) Kelvim Escobar (LAA)
26) Francisco Liriano (Min)
27) Yovani Gallardo (Mil)
28) AJ Burnett (Tor)
29) John Maine (NYM)
30) Chad Billingsley (LAD)
31) James Shields (TB)
32) Pedro Martinez (NYM)
33) Ben Sheets (Mil)
34) Oliver Perez (NYM)
35) Matt Cain (SF)
————
36) Jeremy Bonderman (Det)
37) Randy Johnson (Ari)
38) Chien-Ming Wang (NYY)
39) Ted Lilly (ChC)
40) Andy Pettitte (NYY)
41) Dustin McGowan (Tor)
42) Phil Hughes (NYY)
43) Ian Snell (Pit)
44) Tim Hudson (Atl)
45) Derek Lowe (LAD)
46) Jered Weaver (LAA)
47) Jeff Francis (Col)
48) Jon Lester (Bos)
49) Rich Harden (Oak)
50) Adam Wainwright (Stl)

Analysis: Counting the first two tiers as one, there you go: five tiers, take a pitcher from each.  As I mentioned above, one of the most important things I look at for pitchers is their K-rates, particularly historically.  For example, I’m down on Roy Oswalt because for the past three years his K-rate has declined.  On the other side, I loved CC Sabathia last year because in the previous two years he decreased his BB-rate each year.  If you feel like you like a particular guy, or if you’re faced with a choice of two pitchers, check out their last three years and look at the K/9 and BB/9.  If that’s a wash, take the higher-K guy.  If that’s a wash, grab the guy on the better team.  A lot of fantasy experts say that wins are hard to predict, and I agree to an extent.  But if a pitcher is starting 35 games for a team that wins 60, what’s a reasonable number of wins for that pitcher, 10?  What about a guy getting 35 starts for a team that wins 90+?  Isn’t 15 a real possibility?  So does anyone want to bet me that Dice-K is going to have more wins than Tim Lincecum?  

(For the record, I realized that I just completely jinxed Dice-K’s season for writing that.  God would seriously mess him up just to spite me.)

Sleeper: Instead of traditional sleeper picks, I’m just going to tell you who I really like/who I think isn’t being valued properly:

Brandon Webb: You can beat that consistency; his team, which was good last year, is a year older and better; and he’s not “the guy” with the addition of Dan Haren, the return of Randy Johnson, and the improvement of Micah Owings.

Carlos Zambrano: He’ll finish second or third in the NL Cy Young voting this year

Brett Myers: People forget that this guy was one of the best second starters in the league before becoming closer.  A lot of K’s on a hungry team.

AJ Burnett: Lots of K’s, little WHIP, little health.  This guy gets 200 innings and he’s a top ten pitcher.

Chad Billingsley: I am so hard for this guy.  Seriously.  He really buy some mace.

Pedro Martinez: If you like 150 innings, 13 wins, 170K’s, 3.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, you’re in luck.

Jeremy Bonderman: Two years ago, very nice.  Last year, hurt.  This year, his lineup will score 1000 wins.  If he’s healthy, 17 wins and very nice peripherals could happen, which is worth a shot in the 15th round or later.

Randy Johnson: Remember what I said for Pedro? 

Ian Snell: The best fifth (or possibly sixth) fantasy starter possibly in the history of fantasy baseball.

Rich Harden: Last year he was considered sleeper.  This year, I think people actually hate him and wish him ill.  If you’re comfortable with your four other SPs, why not?  And hey, if it doesn’t work out, you’ll get another roster spot when you move him to the DL on May 3.

Bust: Same as above – these are guys I really don’t like/are going higher than they should:

CC Sabathia: Matthew Berry, who is excellent and whose brother is a friend of mine and a true prince among men, made an excellent point: last year, including the playoffs, CC pitched 256 innings.  Never before had he topped 200 innings.  I’ll add something to Berry’s point: CC is 300 mother fucking pounds.  Sometimes the lure of a $160 million contact from Steinbrenner & Co simply pales in comparison to the gnocchi at the clubhouse buffet. 

Josh Beckett: The 20 wins last year were great and if there’s a guy I want pitching Game 7, it’s him.  But you know he had a 5.01 ERA the year before, right?  And you know he’s been plagued with blisters throughout his career?  And he’s already hurt this year?  And you’re gonna use your third or fourth round pick on him?  Really? 

Dan Haren: This guy collapsed in the second half, got a big contract, and now will miss out on foul territory roughly the size of Kansas in the Coliseum.  The AL to NL switch usually always results in better numbers – this guy will be the exception.  Maybe he won’t decline too much, but I don’t think he’ll improve. 

Roy Oswalt: For reasons mentioned above.

Fausto Carmona: Gut feeling, but I don’t dig this guy.  Do I always need empirical evidence?

Ben Sheets: This isn’t business – it’s personal.  This guy has burned me for some many years that I think if I were to see him, it might get physical.  And I don’t mean that in a good way.  I don’t think.

Any of the young pitchers on the Yankees or Red Sox:  Let you moron friends from New York/New Jersey and Boston draft these guys way, way higher than they should be drafted.

[One final note on starters: If you’re in a keeper league and keep four or more players, please, for the love of God, draft both Tim Lincecum and Francisco Liriano.  Lincecum is like a hybrid of Billy Wagner and Brandon Webb and Liriano is Pedro Martinez the year before he won his first Cy Young.  Just promise me you’ll draft them.  Please.] 

CLOSERS
1) Jonathan Papelbon
2) JJ Putz
3) Francisco Rodriguez
4) Joe Nathan
————
5) Francisco Cordero
6) Billy Wagner
7) Jose Valverde
8) Bobby Jenks
9) Mariano Rivera
10) Trevor Hoffman
11) Takashi Saito
12) Jason Isringhausen
13) Matt Capps
14) Manny Corpas
15) Joakim Soria
————
16) Joe Borowski
17) Todd Jones
18) Rafael Soriano
19) Brad Lidge
20) Eric Gagne
————
21) Huston Street
22) Chad Cordero
23) Brandon Lyon
24) Carlos Marmol
25) Brian Wilson
26) C.J. Wilson
27) Troy Percival
28) Kevin Gregg
29) George Sherrill
30) Jeremy Accardo
31) B.J. Ryan

Analysis: Notice I titled this section “closers” and not “relief pitchers.”  This is because I draft these guys for one thing and one thing only: saves.  That’s it.  They can have a 4.98 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, because they’re only pitching 60 innings anyway.  As long as they give me 30+ saves, I won’t complain.

I won’t do sleepers or busts here either, because these rankings do not reflect closer ability or potential peripherals, but rather how safe their job is.  This doesn’t mean that peripherals are totally disregarded, but if I draft a closer, I want to be as sure as possible he’s going to stay that team’s closer (barring injury).  For example, Papelbon is the closer in Boston.  It’s pretty safe to say he’s not going to get pulled from that role.  Same with Putz and K-Rod, though I was tempted to put Nathan in the second tier because he’s a free agent after this year, meaning he’ll be a huge bargaining chip come trade deadline time.  But because he’ll most likely be the closer of whatever team he’s traded to (if he’s traded), he stays in the top tier. 

Francisco Cordero just got a huge contract to close.  Billy Wagner’s not going to set up anyone, neither is Mariano Rivera.  Jose Valverde was traded for to close.  Bobby Jenks had a stellar second half, securing his role.  Trevor Hoffman’s a borderline bum, but in what could be his final season, the all-time saves leader is not going to pitch in the seventh.  Saito could be a steal at where I have him ranked, but the Dodgers are built to win if not now then soon, and Saito’s 38 and he has the 280 pound Jonathan Broxton throwing 101 in the eighth, looking like his daddy said to his mommy while they were doing it, “Let’s make us a closer.”  And if not Capps, Corpas and Soria, then who?

After that, you’ve got two guys who pitch only slightly better than I do and a couple of fairly serious question marks (although Soriano might thrive in the role, I admit).  I’ll bet that either Huston Street or Chad Cordero are traded before the deadline and might possibly not close in their new homes.  And after those guys, it’s a guessing game. 

I always try to walk out of a draft with two guys who I know aren’t going to lose their jobs, and then take a few late-round gambles.  If you’re in a daily transaction league and are not on top of things, it’s worth it to take two or three closers who aren’t going anywhere.  If you’re a stoner who watches Sportscenter at 2am after the west coast games finish and can pick up whoever will close now that Brian Wilson got hit with a line drive, then maybe you only need to draft one closer.  Your call, homies.

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I’m going to bed now.