In a few hours, the first pitch will be thrown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies in the first game of the 2008 National League Championship Series. The winner of this series will go on to the World Series. To many of you, today’s game will be just another postseason baseball game. But I must tell you that there are other things at work here.

On paper, the Phillies appear to be the superior team. They won the NL East and finished 92-70, good second-best in the National League. They boast the last two NL MVP winners in first baseman Ryan Howard (2006) and shortstop Jimmy Rollins (2007), and if second baseman Chase Utley’s hitting hadn’t slowed as the year progressed, he might have joined them this year. They have great team defense (Rollins won a gold glove last year, Utley should win one this year); lots of speed on the base paths (Rollins and CF Shane Victorino combined to steal 83 bases, despite missing 25 and 16 games, respectively); lots of pop (four different players with at least 24 home runs, including Ryan Howard’s 48 home runs, tops in the NL); a legit ace in Cole Hamels, a #2 starter in Brett Myers who can be brilliant, and a “crafty veteran” as their #3, Jamie Moyer, the 45 year-old who led the team with 16 wins; a lights-out closer who did not blow a single save all season; and, perhaps most importantly, home field advantage for the series.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, don’t look as sexy on paper. They won the NL West, universally recognized as the worst division in baseball this season. Their regular season record was 84-78; four teams in the NL Central finished the season with a better record (so essentially the Dodgers spent most of their year playing crappy teams and still didn’t garner an impressive record). Their full season leader in home runs was 25 year old Andre Ethier, with only 20 homers. Their best pitcher this year was Chad Billingsley, who went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA but is just 24 years old. Their closer (Saito) was hurt during the year and has returned without the same stuff, so their playoff closer is Jonathan Broxton, also 24 years old, a moose of a power-pitcher who has dominating stuff but has been known to bleed like a hemophiliac when cut. All this…meh.

(For a terrific and much more thorough statistical analysis of the two teams, go here.)

However, the Dodgers have four things going for them: 1) Manny Ramirez, who since joining the team 53 games ago has put up a video game-like stat line of 17 home runs, 53 RBI, a .396 average and a .489 on-base percentage; 2) manager Joe Torre, four-time World Champion with the New York Yankees and widely considered one of the wisest and most-respected managers in the game; 3) the return of their lead-off man Rafael Furcal, whose speed at the top of the lineup and defense from the shortstop position makes this team much more threatening; and 4) the fact that they not only just swept the Chicago Cubs, far and away the best team in the NL during the regular season, but absolutely handed their asses to them and then went home and fucked their wives. Seriously. It was a bloodbath.

For these reasons, the Dodgers are the trendy pick to beat the Phils and advance to the World Series, and the majority of media members are saying they’re going to win. They’ve got the even-keeled manager, the super-duper star, the momentum, the huge media market, and as I write this at least two Fox executives are masturbating in their offices about the potential ramifications of a Sox-Dodgers “Return of Manny and Torre to Boston” World Series.

But here’s the thing: the Philadelphia Phillies are going to win the National League Championship. Then they are going to win the World Series. Because it must be so.

Time for some history lessons.

There are thirteen US cities that have teams in all four major sports (baseball, football, basketball, and, still but for not too much longer, hockey). They are Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Fran, and Washington, DC. (Note: We’re talking metropolitan areas, so SF has the Warriors in the NBA and the Sharks in the NHL, etc.) Below is a list of these cities with the last year in which any one of their teams won a championship and the team that won it:

Atlanta* — 1995 (Braves)
Boston — 2008 (Celtics)
Chicago — 2005 (White Sox)
Dallas — 1999 (Stars)
Denver — 2001 (Avalanche)
Detroit — 2004 (Pistons)
Miami — 2006 (Heat)
Minneapolis** — 1991 (Twins)
New York — Giants (2007)
Philadelphia — 1983 (76ers)
Phoenix — 2001 (Diamondbacks)
San Fran — 1994 (49ers)
Washington, DC*** — 1991 (Redskins)

* Only had all four sports since 1999
** Only had all four sports since 2000
*** Only had all four sports since 2005

Looking at that list, Philly has the longest championship drought of any team with four major sports teams, having won their last title in 1983. You may look at this list and say, “Yeah, well, the Twins or Redskins in ’91 aren’t that far behind – that’s only eight years. Then the Niners and Braves aren’t far beyond those guys, with their last wins in 1994 and 1995. Doesn’t seem to be that much of a difference.”

Do you want to know the difference between 1983 and 1991 or 1994 or 1995 is? MY ENTIRE FUCKING YOUTH. The last time a Philly team won a championship, I was four years old. I didn’t get to enjoy it, because I’m not sure I could even wipe my own ass at the time. Instead, I came of age when the Phillies (save for 1993) blew, the Eagles were tempting but always a disappointment (then later a downright disgrace), the Sixers were hot-cold (meaning warm and cool, cold, colder) and the Flyers, while pretty solid in my high school years, still didn’t bring home any championships.

Here’s another way to look at this. The following is a list of total seasons since any of the sports teams won a championship.

Atlanta* — 34
Boston — 2
Chicago — 11
Dallas — 34
Denver — 29
Detroit — 14
Miami — 8
Minneapolis** — 30
New York — 2
Philadelphia — 100
Phoenix — 27
San Fran — 54
Washington, DC*** — 12

* Only had all four sports since 1999
** Only had all four sports since 2000
*** Only had all four sports since 2005

Looks a little different, doesn’t it? San Fran is closest to Philly, but when I was a kid and I was praying that Randall Cunningham would not get sacked again, they had Joe Fucking Montana and his Hall of Fame back-up, Steve Young, which is like choosing between a million dollars and a blowjob or a million dollars and a blowjob.

This kind of stuff I take personally. It infuriates me, and in some subconscious way probably explains why I get my best erections at funerals and why I follow women in malls to get a smell of their hair. For essentially all of my life, Philly fans like myself have sat idly by, watching other teams and cities take home championship after championship; teams like the Marlins, Angels, Buccaneers, and Hurricanes (of Carolina – apparently it’s an NHL team) have all won championships in recent years – I think I have more friends than those teams have fans (and I am not a very popular guy). Still, Philly fans are some of the most loyal in the country, if not the world. Personally, I dare not list the things that I would give up for a Philly championship, but let’s just say that one of these things rhymes with “best spectacle.”

But what I would give up for a Philly championship is all moot now, since this is the Phillies’ year. Here’s why.

I went to Boston College. I started in September in 1997 and graduated in May of 2001. During that time, the Boston sports scene was abysmal. Drew Bledsoe was at the helm of the Patriots, which is kinda like me becoming the editor of The Economist; I’m not a total half-wit, but it ain’t gonna go well. The Wikipedia entry for the Celtics is broken into a section for 1993-2001 and titled “Tragedy and Decline,” so that should tell you all you need to know about that franchise at that time. And lastly (because I’m not counting the Bruins), the Red Sox were getting worked year-in and year-out by their hated rival the Yankees.

In July of 2001, I moved to New York City, home of the World Champion New York Yankees, who had won the last three World Series and four of the last five. They appeared to be on their way to their fourth in a row when I set up shop in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. But then a funny thing happened: Mariano Rivera was on the mound and with one blooper, the Diamondbacks beat the Yankees in Game 7, a game I watched from my bedroom in Brooklyn, and the Yankees lost the World Series. Since then, the Yankees have not won a World Series.

Two hundred miles north and a week before this Yankees loss, Cement Feet Bledsoe got knocked out of a game and a sexy beast of a youngster named Tom Brady entered the game at quarterback for the New England Patriots. Brady led the team all the way to the Super Bowl, but the game seemed a formality, as the juggernaut St. Louis Rams, champions of two years ago, were 14 point favorites. But then a funny thing happened: New England won 20-17 on a last minute field goal and that Tom Brady guy was named MVP.

This set off a chain reaction, a feeding frenzy for Boston teams that saw six championships – three in football, two in baseball, one in basketball – since I moved away from the city. To recap:

Boston
1997-2001 (me in the city) – no championships
2001-2008 (me not in the city) – six championships

In August of 2007, I did a three-week stint in LA, working out of my firm’s LA office while pitching a new TV show idea. The show idea did not take off – there were offers, but nothing that I thought were in my best interest (once you sell a TV show idea, the buyer owns the idea forever, so they’d better pay you in more than buckets of clam chowder) – but I loved my time in LA. It was great to get out of my cramped Chinatown/Little Italy area, I was hanging out with friends I hadn’t seen in a while, and making out consistently. I hearted LA.

(Re: hearting LA – Um, whoops.)

In December of 2007, I made a decision: I was going to move to LA. I figured that I was almost 30, that I had been visiting the city for years and enjoyed it, so if I was going to “start over” somewhere, this was the best time and LA the best place. I wasn’t sure how the logistics would work out with work and all, but for me, it was a done deal: sometime in the next few months I was going to LA. So I started making arrangements.

At the time when I made this decision, the New York Giants were 7-4, but just about ready for one of their late season collapses, led first and foremost by their shaky quarterback, Eli Manning. They made it to the playoffs and beat the Bucs (in a game I cared so little about I barely watched it) the Cowboys (but the game was more a case of the Cowboys choking than the Giants rising to the occasion), and the Packers, improbably after missing a few field goals, to make it to the Super Bowl against the undefeated New England Patriots, 13 point favorites. But then a funny thing happened: the Giants won 17-14 on a last minute touchdown and that Eli Manning bum was named MVP.

************

The point: Every time I have left or have decided to leave a city, a championship has followed in my wake. Even when I left Philly to go to college, the Philadelphia Phantoms won the Calder Cup (hey, it ain’t much, but the Mulgrew Curse had to start somewhere). Now while I haven’t exactly “left” Philly per se, I did move as far away from Philly as I reasonably could (my ass wasn’t going to Tokyo or London or whatnot).

Add to this the long-standing feud I have had with God since the mid-80′s – I punish him by not dying and maintaining an unreasonable level of success despite a lack of both talent and an adult-sized penis, he punishes me with constant Philly losses – and it’s the perfect storm: The Philadelphia Phillies are going to win the 2008 World Series. There simply can be no other outcome. The Phillies are going to win the World Series and I will watch their victory in my shitty home in Los Angeles, alone, drinking canned beer and crying in my living room, lamenting the fact that I am here on the west coast where sports are about networking and being seen, while all my family, all my friends, all those I have cheered with and suffered with through the years are back in Philly, where it matters, where it’s everything. And I will weep and continue weeping for a long time, both for the end of the long-suffering misery of Philadelphia sports fans everywhere and because at that very moment, watching the team celebrate, sitting alone on my couch, seeing my cell phone buzz and fill with voicemail of joyful howls of victory and “Man, you should be here’s!” I will finally realize – God: W, Me: L.

(Go Phils)