good news/bad news (world series edition)
The good news: As I said before, the Phillies are going to win the World Series. I have no doubt about this and haven’t since they got into the playoffs, even calling a Phils WS win on here. Because I moved as far away from Philly as possible, God is going to bestow the city of Philadelphia with its first world championship since 1983, when I was four years old. God and I have been feuding on and off for years now, and this is His way of really one-upping me. You have to admit, He’s good. So Philly fans, you have that going for you.
Secondly, the Phillies, pound for pound, have the better team. The Rays have pop, we have pop. The Rays have speed, we have speed. The Rays play great defense, we play great defense. The differences:
1) The Rays have homefield advantage. True, four games will be played at The Trop and only three at Citizen’s Bank, if the Series goes to seven. But can I ask you a question? Would you rather have four games in front of crowd filled with people who think Evan is Eva’s little brother and think it’s good when the batter hits the ball far, even if it’s for an out? Or would you rather have three games in front of a crowd of rabid, obese, championship-starved people, whose franchise has one championship in 126 years, who not only know about baseball and the team but will also you follow you into the parking lot and brain you with your little cowbell after the game? I’m ok with the latter, thanks.
2) The Rays rotation is deeper. Kazmir, Shields, Garza and Sonnanstine is a good, deep rotation. But when I look at those names, I see 2a, 2b, 2c, 3a. The Phillies have a much thinner rotation, led by Cole Hamels and followed by Brett “Who am I going to be today?” Myers, Jaime “I’m apparently trying to sabotage the playoffs” Moyer and Joe “Nobody seems to notice that I’m pitching pretty well right now” Blanton. But here’s the thing: in a seven game playoff series, deep rotations with B or B+ starters don’t get it done – rotations with one or two aces do. Cole Hamels is an ace. Cole Hamels can go 1 and 4 and 7, if necessary (not buying Charlie Manuel saying he won’t start Cole on three days’ rest). I’ll take Hamels two or three times in a seven game series (with a quality start or two from Myers or Blanton) over B+, B+, B+, B, thanks.
3) The disparity in bullpens. The Rays bullpen, seemingly a source of relative strength for the team all year, seemed to hit a wall in Game 5 of the ALCS. Watching Dan Wheeler on the mound, dangling there, I mean “deer in headlights” doesn’t even work there. Of course, David “Superman” Price closed out the game in Game 7 and could be their closer, but the guy had five major league appearances on his resume prior to the playoffs. Yeah, he looks like The Truth, but what happens when he’s on the mound in the Bank with the game on the line? And this is even if he’s closing – Joe Maddon has said he’s going to be used almost exclusively to get Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out. Aside from Price, the TB bullpen appears to be held together by duct tape at this point. Meanwhile, the Phils had the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the league and a closer who went 41-41 in save opps during the season and is 5-5 so far in the playoffs. Huge advantage here for the Phils.
4) We have experience. Last year, when the Phillies got to the playoffs, it was their “happy to be here” attitude that helped in their undoing. I don’t think this team will feel satisfied with a WS appearance, but rather only with a WS victory. Tampa Bay’s hopes rest on a 24 year old starter who’s spent his entire career playing for absolutely terrible teams; a 24 year old who started playing CF just this year and had 9 home runs during the regular season; a 23 year old 3B who, well, he looks pretty great; and a 23 year old set-up man/closer who’s pitched a total of 14.1 innings in the major leagues.
5) Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Anyone else noticed that the Phillies dismantled the Brewers and Dodgers without a single home run from Ryan Howard? Anyone else notice in the last three games against the Dodgers, Howard went 6-12 with two walks and most importantly, zero strikeouts? Did you guys know that Jimmy Rollins is hitting .243 in the postseason so far? See that leadoff home run in Game Five against the Dodgers? These two are beyond due. If you had told me before the playoffs that the Phillies would go 7-2 with Howard and Rollins batting a combined .250 with two home runs and five RBI between them, I probably would have placed several bets with you.
Finally, the last reason for optimism: my entire life I’ve been your typical pessimistic Philly sports fan, predicting doom at every turn, realizing that ultimately my teams would let me down. When the Eagles lost the Super Bowl in 2004, I quoted Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who after the assassination of JFK said, “To be Irish is to know that in the end the world will break your heart.” The misery of the Irish is sooooo a hundred years ago; the misery of the Philly sports fan is more alive now than ever before. But this year, straight from the get-go, I’ve eschewed pessimism and anxiety and have sat back and enjoyed the ride, a ride which will only end with a parade down Broad Street. Which brings us to the bad news…
The bad news: If the Phillies are in a position to win the World Series title, I am going to Philadelphia. I know, I know – I probably should stay away. In the post linked above, I talked about how in 2001 I left Loserville Boston and moved to Titletown NYC and almost single-handedly reversed the fortunes of those two cities. It was only when I made the decision and began making arrangements to move to LA than did the Giants win the Super Bowl. Hell, in 2006, I flew from NYC to Seattle to root for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, so desperate was I to be in a city that wins a championship – and we know how that turned out.
The point: essentially, where I am, championships are not. However, as a die-hard Philadelphia fan, I can not allow myself to (potentially) sit idly by in Los Angeles, a city I hate with the passion of a thousand burning suns that are on fire really bad, while my city erupts into a championship orgy. I can’t do it. I have to be there if this might happen.
So here’s my thing – I’m in New York City right now for a work thingee. On Thursday night, I am flying back to LA (I will miss Game Two, but there is nothing I can do about it). On Friday, I am driving to Las Vegas – my first trip ever to Vegas – for my buddy/old roommate Brian’s 30th birthday. I am scheduled to return from Vegas to LA on Monday.
(By the way, Vegas suggestions welcome. We’re staying at the Hard Rock.)
Therefore, I will be in Vegas for Games Three (Saturday) and Game Four (Sunday) and in LA for Game Five (Monday). If the Phillies are up 3-0 after Saturday, I am flying from Vegas to Philly on Sunday morning. If the Phillies are up 3-1 after Sunday, I am flying from Vegas to Philly on Monday morning. If the Phillies are down or 2-2 or whatnot, I will return to LA and play it by ear.
There are a lot of variables at work, but this much I can assure you: if the Phillies are in a position to win the World Series title, I am going to Philadelphia. This is going to happen. I have the vacation days to burn, 112,000 Delta SkyMiles at my disposal, and above all, a relentless desire to finally see victory, real, live victory.
(Having said this, I will take full responsibility if the Phils lose when I am in Philly. I promise.)
Prediction: Phillies in six.
