fantasy baseball preview, part two
Positions are based on Yahoo eligibility, which is a bit more lax than ESPN. I’ll give the tiers, provide a little analysis, and then name sleepers and busts. I realize that “sleepers” and “busts” are objective, but I’ll define a sleeper as someone whose performance I think will exceed his draft position and a bust as someone who won’t live up to his draft position. Let’s go.
[And remember, if you want the full Secret Sheet with its depth charts, 20 hitting metrics, and 22 pitching metrics, send $5 over to eiwwme@gmail.com through paypal, using the “Make A Donation” button on the right if you like. I usually give four tiers per position below, but I have an average of six per position in the sheet. It’s the shit. Seriously.]
CATCHER
Brian McCann (Atl)
Russell Martin (LAD)
————
Geovany Soto (ChC)
Joe Mauer (Min)
Victor Martinez (Cle)
Ryan Doumit (Pit)
————
Matt Wieters (Bal)
————
Pablo Sandoval (SF)
Chris Ianetta (Col)
Kelly Shoppach (Cle)
Bengie Molina (SF)
Mike Napoli (Ana)
Analysis: Oh catcher, long the ugly stepsister of the fantasy baseball roster – finally, something to talk about! First and foremost, there’s Matt Wieters, the Baltimore Orioles phenom who might put up the greatest rookie numbers ever or might toil in the minors for most of the season. Straight away: if you’re in a keeper league, draft this guy, post haste. What makes me willing to take the chance on him is that sabermatricians are having trouble projecting numbers for him, since no one has ever hit as well as he has at such a young age. From Wieter’s Wikipedia page:
In 130 games for the Keys and Baysox, [Wieters] hit a combined .355 BA/.454 OBP/.600 SLG with 27 home runs and 91 RBI. Wieters earned the 2008 Minor League Player of the Year honors from Baseball America. According to Clay Davenport’s measure EqA, Wieters had one of the single best seasons in recorded minor league history. His EqAs of .301 and .349 were the highest marks in their respective leagues in the last 40 years.
His closest comparison, because he’s a patient switch-hitter who hits for average and plus-power, is Mark Teixeira. I’ll take Mark Teixeira as a catcher on my keeper team, thank you. But if you’re drafting in a redraft/non-keeper league, he becomes much more difficult to handle. My guess is he goes the Evan Longoria route and spends only a few weeks in the minors: expect 120-130 games of a little over .300, around 20 and around 75, with plenty of walks in there. The Orioles are not going anywhere and it only makes sense for them, once they get out of that arbitration-eligible zone, to show the fans what they got.
Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer’s injury, the return of Victor Martinez, and the exciting power possibilities of Mike Napoli (posted a .960 OPS in 227 at-bats last year), Chris Ianetta (.895 OPS in 333 ABs) and Kelly Shoppach (.865 OPS in 352 ABs) and catcher has become a little bit interesting.
Instead of doing “sleepers” and “busts”, because catcher is such a thin category, I’m just going to talk at you.
- I think that if Matt Wieters is there after the 13th round, I’m taking a flier and picking up AJ off the waiver wire (especially in head-to-head leagues)
- I think I stay away from Joe Mauer. When they can’t even tell you exactly why what’s wrong is hurting him in the end of March, I’m not interested.
- If I miss the McCann/Soto train (prefer those two to Martin, though have to give Russell props for the speed) and Wieters is gone, I’m more inclined to wait until round 20+ for one of the power guys mentioned above rather than go for Doumit (not enough of a track record) or Martinez (just killed me last year).
- Cleveland and SF have two catchers each above, but only Molina and Shoppach will actually play there. Martinez will spend his time at DH or 1B with a few games at C, whereas Sandoval is the starting 3B for SF but in Yahoo qualifies at 1B, 3B and C. Me like Sandoval.
- I’m sorry; I’m so hard for that Matt Wieter’s write-up that it’s difficult for me to concentrate. Let’s move on to first base.
FIRST BASE
Albert Pujols (StL)
Miguel Cabrera (Det)
Mark Teixiera (NYY)
————
Ryan Howard (Phi)
Lance Berkman (Hou)
Justin Morneau (Min)
Kevin Youkilis (Bos)
Prince Fielder (Mil)
Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
————
Derek Lee (ChC)
Aubrey Huff (Bal)
Adam Dunn (Was)
Carlos Pena (TB)
Carlos Delgado (NYM)
————
Joey Votto (Cin)
Chris Davis (Tex)
Jorge Cantu (Fla)
Garrett Atkins (Col)
Jason Giambi (Oak)
James Loney (LAD)
Victor Martinez (Cle)
Note: David Ortiz just missed qualifying at 1B, but should get there at some point this year.
Analysis: Just as it don’t take a whole day to recognize sunshine, it doesn’t take long to see that this is the deepest position. Every single mutha-fucking guy in those first three tiers is capable of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, so do you want to pay $100 for a blowjob from the 9 or $50 for a blowjob from the 7.5? Meaning: any way you look at it, a blowjob is terrific. Except in my case, since I’ve only gotten off to about six of them in my life. Aside from one girl, who had magic powers. But we’re getting off track here.
Because it’s so deep, I try not to use a pick in the first three rounds on a big name (the exceptions being Pujols, who I would take #2 overall behind Hanley, and Miggy, since he qualifies at 3B as well). Everyone in the first two tiers should not make it past the first three rounds, so that’s when I swoop in and grab myself a tier three guarantee and take an upside guy (i.e. Votto, Davis, Loney) later on.
Sleeper: Carlos Delgado is getting very little respect, despite a tremendous 96-38-115-2-.271 season last year. Can he duplicate these numbers? Likely not, but he looked slim and chocolate-delicious playing for Puerto Rico in the WBC and could approach similar numbers. Love Votto, although he’s getting a bit of notoriety and going even a little bit higher than he should, and likewise love (and will always love) Loney, who I am still convinced go go Todd Helton-lite on us one day (i.e. 90-28-110-3-.310). People think Jason Giambi died, but he actually put up 96 RBI last year and can probably be had very, very late in your league.
Bust: As much as I love power hitters, with the glut of options at 1B, I will likely not end up with Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena on any of my non-OBP leagues. 40 homers is nice, but a .240 average is not, or at least not worth it when there are so many other options out there. Anyone want to bet that Berkman doesn’t steal 18 bases again? Anyone?
“I Have No Idea What To Do With You”: Aubrey Huff and Chris Davis. Real or not real? No idea. In the case of the latter, there’s going to be a Chris Davis fanatic in your league so you likely won’t even have time to think about drafting him (17 HRs in 80 games in Texas is pretty appealing). And in the case of the former, Aubrey Huff put up fucking 330 total bases last year, good for 8th in the majors and better than Teixeira, Berkman, Youk and A-Rod? I FEEL LIKE I’M TAKING CRAZY PILLS!
(Translation: Your guess is as good as mine)
SECOND BASE
Chase Utley (Phi)
Ian Kinsler (Tex)
Dustin Pedroia (Bos)
————
Brian Roberts (Bal)
Brandon Phillips (Cle)
————
Alexei Ramirez (CWS)
Dan Uggla (Fla)
Chone Figgins (Ana)
————
Mark DeRosa (Cle)
Robinson Cano (NYY)
Orlanda Hudson (LAD)
————
Jose Lopez (Sea)
Howie Kendrick (Ana)
A ton of crappy guys
Analysis: Man, do things get ugly near the end there. Those top five should be gone in the first five rounds, then you’re left with upside, power and steals from the third tier, followed up a couple of questions marks in the fourth tier, followed by guys you probably shouldn’t feel comfortable having as your starting 2B after that. Of this crew, I love Utley, who’ll start the season and make my heart flutter; Kinsler, whose numbers over a full-year in Texas could make him a top 5 (yes, top 5) player if he plays in 150+ games; and steady Brian Roberts. Also…
Sleeper: Cano and Figgins had off years last year and should be available later than they deserve. The former is a .300+ capable hitter in one of the best lineups in baseball and the latter (if healthy) a guarantee for 40+ steals. Don’t sleep on Orlando Hudson: he hits around .280, takes walks, and has a bit of pop as evinced by 34, 28 and 29 doubles and 15, 10 and 8 home runs in the last three years (which includes only 107 games last year). In that lineup, especially near the top of it (if he hits there, which is unlikely), I love him.
Bust: 117/13/8, 111/5/3, 139/8/7, 157/17/20. These are the games/home runs/stolen base numbers for Dustin Pedroia for his last four full professional seasons (the first two in the minors). Sorry, but there’s no way I’m using a second round pick on a guy with that track record, even if he does play for the Sox and is only 24 years old. Just can’t do it. Also, Alexei Ramirez…everyone loves him, and I just don’t get it. The guy has poor plate discipline (nearly 4:1 K to BB ratio) and he’s 28 years old. I’d rather not.
SHORTSTOP
Hanley Ramirez (Fla)
Jose Reyes (NYM)
Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
————
Derek Jeter (NYY)
Troy Tulowitzki (Col)
Rafael Furcal (LAD)
Stephen Drew (Ari)
Michael Young (Tex)
————
Alexei Ramirez (CWS)
Jhonny Peralta (Cle)
————
JJ Hardy (Mil)
Orlando Cabrera (Oak)
Mike Aviles (KC)
Miguel Tejada (Hou)
Elvis Andrus (Tex)
Analysis: Just because SS is so top-heavy – Hanley, Reyes and Rollins should be among the first ten picks in your draft – doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Two formerly top SS options – Tulo and Furcal – are returning from injuries and there are a number of reliable options (i.e. Jeter, Young, Peralta, Hardy, Cabrera). And of course, there’s a couple of tantalizing break-out options in the persons of Drew, Ramirez and Aviles.
Sleeper: The key to SS is value. For example, Jeter’s going to get similar to what he got last year: 88-11-69-11-.300. You can take something like these numbers to the bank right now. But why pay 5th round prices for Jeter when you can get a guy like Orlando Cabrera, one of the consistently most underrated players in fantasy baseball, ten rounds later and enjoy something like his last year: 93-8-57-19-.281? I would also let others fall all over the potential and the “sexiness” of Drew and Ramirez and either take a shot at Tulo or Furcal (both having great springs) or grab Young or Hardy.
Bust: I don’t think it’s really possible to identify one stand-out bust guy among this group. As long as you’re ok with a .240 but 30+ stolen bases out of Andrus, you’ll be ok. And if you want to waste a 5th round pick on Jeter so you’ll sleep better at night, that’s fine. But – and it might sound silly to say – SS, in my opinion, is loaded with options.
THIRD BASE
David Wright (NYM)
Miguel Cabrera (Det)
————
Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
Aramis Ramirez (ChC)
Kevin Youkilis (Bos)
Evan Longoria (TB)
————
Aubrey Huff (Bal)
Chipper Jones (Atl)
Chris Davis (Tex)
Alex Gordon (KC)
Chone Figgins (Ana)
————
Garrett Atkins (Col)
Adrian Beltre (Sea)
Melvin Mora (Bal)
Ryan Zimmerman (Was)
Jorge Cantu (Fla)
Analysis: A-Rod’s injury really threw this position into disarray. Is he back in May or will he sit out longer? And when he comes back, will he be at full strength? My advice is lame, but terrific: just steer clear. There are a number of safer options at 3B – hell, two guys who hit 28 and 26 home runs at third last year (Mark Reynolds and Edwin Encarnacion, respectively) didn’t even make the list. Of course, these guys are not A-Rod. But what you’re doing in every draft is trying to maximize the value for the pick. When healthy, A-Rod is a special player and deserving of top-3 overall status. When he’s going to miss at least a month and there’s not guarantee he’ll be a 100% when he return, he’s not a smart play.
Sleeper: One thing you’ll probably notice is that Alex Gordon is pretty high. Well, you should know that I am quite possibly in love with Alex Gordon this year. How does one go from being one of the most hyped rookies in recent years to an afterthought, the tenth (or later) 3B taken off the board? Without so much pressure, and with an increased walk rate last year (66 in 493 AB’s) and nice secret stats (35 doubles in 134 games, to go with 16 home runs and 9 SBs) and you’re looking at a guy who should (not could, but should) put up something like 80-24-90-15-.285. A first rounder? No. An 18th rounder? Hardly.
Also, I write this every year and espouse it so often that I should just formally name it the Chipper Corollary. In his last five years, Chipper’s played in 137, 109, 110, 138 and 128 games (which is bad), but hit 30, 21, 26, 29 and 22 home runs with very nice peripherals (which is good). In 2007, he put up a stellar 108-29-102-5-.337 campaign, and he almost won the batting title last year with a total line of 82-22-75-4-.365. If you draft Chipper appropriately and expect 125 games, and draft someone from the last tier at the end of the draft, you’re total 162 game stats with Chipper and the “other” 3B are, for lack of a better word, gorgeous: without exaggeration something like 95-32-95-7-.315.
Lastly, because this is already way too long, Adrian Beltre’s in a contract year. Remember what happened last time he was in a contract year? Not saying it’ll happen again, but expect a modest-to-moderate bump in his numbers – I’d take the over on 80-28-90-10-.270. Seriously.
Bust: Without any empirical evidence to back this up, I think Evan Longoria struggles a little bit this year. This may sound preposterous, but pitchers figure out hitters after a while; Longoria was able to sustain such a high level of success last year because no one could figure not just him, but his entire fucking team. Maybe they’re legit, but the Rays have “lightening in a bottle” written all over them this year, since I do truly believe there is something to the way that opposing teams approach an opponent: You can tell me teams play the Patriots the same way they play the Raiders.
(Sorry, switched sports on you there.)
OUTFIELD
Grady Sizemore (Cle)
Ryan Braun (Mil)
————
Matt Holliday (Oak)
Manny Ramirez (LAD)
Carlos Beltran (NYM)
Josh Hamilton (Tex)
Lance Berkman (Hou)
Alfonso Soriano (ChC)
Carlos Lee (Hou)
Jason Bay (Bos)
Matt Kemp (LAD)
Nick Markakis (Bal)
BJ Upton (TB)
————
Carl Crawford (TB)
Ichiro Suzuki (Sea)
Vlad Guerrero (LAA)
Alex Rios (Tor)
Bobby Abreu (Ana)
Carlos Quentin (CWS)
Curtis Granderson (Det)
Ryan Ludwick (Stl)
Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos)
Nate McLouth (Pit)
Shane Victorino (Phi)
Vernon Wells (Tor)
Johnny Damon (NYY)
Jermaine Dye (CWS)
Adam Dunn (Was)
Magglio Ordonez (Det)
Justin Upton (Ari)
————
Raul Ibanez (Phi)
Torii Hunter (Ana)
Andre Ethier (LAD)
Corey Hart (Mil)
Jayson Werth (Phi)
Xavier Nady (NYY)
Milton Bradley (ChC)
Pat Burrell (TB)
Hunter Pence (Hou)
Lastings Milledge (Was)
Willy Taveras (Cin)
Shin-Soo Choo (Cle)
That’s 42, so I’m going to have to stop here. I could go on for hours. God, I need another hobby.
Analysis: Yes, OF is deep. Looking at that list, you’re probably thinking, “Oh come on – I’m going to be fine.” But – and this may sound stupid – you have to start three of them, jerkoff. Do the math – in a 10-team league, that’s 30 starting OFs; in a 12-teamer, it’s, um, 36 starting OFs. Ergo, go after them early and often (well, at least two of them), for they are the lifeblood of the championship fantasy squad.
As an avowed power-lover/anti-steals-only guy, I am especially highly enamored with those who hit for power and steal. Therefore, if you get a chance at Sizemore, Holliday, Beltran, Soriano, Kemp, Markakis, Rios, Abreu, McLouth, Damon, Hunter, Hart, Werth, Milledge – I mean, I want to party with these guys.
(Is it safe to say that if you take anything away from this preview, it that’s you should do all you can to avoid draft a speedster HR/RBI drain. Is that safe to say?)
Sleeper: Two mystery players and their 2008 numbers:
Player A: 103-6-42-43-.311 in 686 ABs
Player B: 102-14-58-36-.293 in 570 ABs
Pretty even, right? The Player A is, according to ESPN, the 6th OF going off the board and the 24th overall pick. Player B is the 26th OF, being drafted around pick 85 overall.
Give up? Player A is Ichiro and Player B is….Shane Victorino. Yeah, maybe I’m taking some liberties here; Ichiro had an off-year last year and Victorino had his best. But Ichiro is 35 and on a terrible team; Victorino is 28 and hitting second in (in my opinion) the greatest lineup in the history of baseball and all sport. Just wanted to let you know.
Briefly, other guys I love, since I’m getting dizzy: Carlos Lee (100 RBI in 115 games before a pitch broke his hand); Jason Bay (hitting 5th behind Papi in a contract year); Nick Markakis (long-time OBP crush who I would likely kiss if given the chance); Carl Crawford (remember when he was a top-3 OF? It was only last year); Bobby Abreu (100-20-100-20-.290, guaranteed); Jermaine Dye (31-86, 44-120, 28-78, 34-96 HR-RBI over the last four years, and that 28-78 came in only 138 games); Shane Victorino (see above); Raul Ibanez (see previous post); Justin Upton (this year, maybe?): Andre Ethier (clean-up behind Manny?); Jayson Werth (24-20 as a part-timer in 134 games, plus I needed the third Philly OF); and Shin-Soo Choo (68-14-66-4-.309 – with lots 28 doubles and lots of walks in only 96 games last year).
Bust: Again, briefly: Matt Holliday (make all the apologies you want, but take his home/road splits of 285-84-307-28-.357 in 359 games and 194-44-176-38-.280 in 339 games and put him in Oakland with all that foul territory and I’ll let someone else draft him in the second round, thanks); Carlos Quentin (unsustainable FB/HR rate); BJ Upton (shoulder woes and only 9 HR last year); Ichiro (see above); Alfonso Soriano (130 games, every year); Ryan Ludwick (not gonna do it again); Adam Dunn (may walk 400 times and thus not get his 40 homers).
Pitchers coming up…
