Articles Archive for August 2011
- Kindle
- Nook
- iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch or iTunes
And remember, you can get any of 19 other great Harper Perennial titles for 99¢ each, but the sale ends at the end of this month.
Thanks in advance and be sure tell your e-reader havin’ friends, please!
I won’t get (too) into my feelings about fantasy football, but those who have read me know that it’s probably my least favorite fantasy sport, if only because it’s the most “lucky” of them all. This is due to the small sample size (only 16 games!), lack of (relatively) easy to figure out nerds (xFIP, LOB%, BABIP, etc), and, I might argue, strategy in team creation (e.g., in basketball, target PGs who steal, big men who block, never draft Dwight Howard, and target 1-1-1 guys [guys who average 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block per game, or in that neighborhood]).
But at the same time, football is fun precisely because it’s such a crapshoot. Who the fuck knows what’s going on! Last year, Randy Moss was a slam dunk first round pick, and he stunk! Arian Foster was a sleeper, and he was awesome! Shit’s crazy.
The league for which I recently drafted was a 10 team league, but with 20 roster spots, broken down as below:
QB
QB
WR
WR
WR
WR
RB
RB
RB
TE
TE
K
DEF
DEF
Bench (x 6)
So we’re talking some depth here.
Our budget was $250 per team, but there was a strange catch wherein each team had one keeper which was named one week after our draft LAST season, plus $10. Last year, I drafted Jonathan Stewart for $11, and before last season even started, I agreed to keep him for the 2012 season for $21. My logic was that Stewart was only 23 and DeAngelo Williams would be a free agent after the 2011 season, meaning Stewart could be the man in Carolina in 2012.
Welp, though it was a calculated risk, it didn’t quite work out as planned. So going into the auction, I had one spot taken (RB) and my $250 was down to $229 for 19 players. At least we got rid of the keeper rule this year and will not have them going forward.
My Strategy
Get two stud QBs (budget: $90): If you are in a league in which you start two QBs, YOU ARE AT A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE IF YOU HAVE TWO STUD QBs. I can’t stress this enough, and I don’t why people in two QB leagues think they can get by with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tavaris Jackson-like guys. Not only do QBs score the most points in fantasy leagues, but they are also the most stable. Think about it: haven’t Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers – and to a lesser extent, Romo, Roethlisberger and Schaub – been producing for the past few years now? Throw in Vick, and we’re talking about nine producing QBs. At the very least, you must one of these guys in a two QB league. Must, must, must.
But for this league, I went one better than that: my #1 priority was to walk out of this draft with two of the studliest QBs – Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers and Manning – and so I budgeted $90 for this purpose. I don’t have a ton of numbers to back this up, but from my years of doing fantasy, if you score 100 points of week you have, let’s say, an 80% chance of winning. Having two of these guys means there will be weeks when you’ll get 40, 50 or even 60 points from your two QBs alone. That’s a huge advantage that I wanted a piece of, baby.
One stud WR (budget: $30): This league is PPR, but it’s only .33 points per reception. For no other reason than I wanted to feel ok, I aimed for a good but not great WR. I knew I wouldn’t be able to come near the Andre Johnson-Roddy White-Calvin Johnson crew, going in the $40 range, but I was ok with that. I was looking for someone just in that next tier, and would play it by ear during the course of the auction, because I wasn’t particularly in love with anyone.
One stud RB (budget: $50): I was looking to pair a fairly studly RB with Stewart (who, by the way, I think will have a fine year, something like 1000 yards/8 TDs).
I thought that I might find value in RBs who do NOT catch passes. See, when people hear “points per reception,” they start to lose their minds, especially when it comes to RBs. It’s all about “OMG, I HAVE TO DRAFT A RUNNING BACK WHO CATCHES PASSES!” But if you look at the numbers, does that .33 ppr really make a difference? For example, LeSean McCoy led all RBs with 81 receptions last year. 81 times .33 = 27 points. 27 points divided over a 16 game season equals an extra 1.7 points per week.
Am I oversimplifying? Of course. There are collateral numbers here, meaning I’m not taking into accounts receiving yards or receiving TDs. But this is an auction league, and auctions are based on perceived value. I assumed that people might bid the shit out of McCoy, Foster, Rice, Johnson, MJD, Forte – and to a lesser extent, Sproles or Reggie Bush or LaDainian Tomlinson – while being less like to go crazy and star bidding wars over guys like Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, LeGarrette Blount, Cedric Benson, etc. So I was targeting either of the first of those two, ideally.
Play TE by ear and either draft Gates (budget $25) or both of the NE TEs (budget $8): I know Gates is often banged up, but my god, he’s beastly when he plays. It goes back to what I was mentioning with the QBs – if you have two stud QBs and Gates when he’s healthy, those three can put up 60 to even 80 points alone on a very good to great week. If your 11 other starters come somehow add even just 40 points, you put yourself in a prime position to win.
Should Gates not work out, my plan was to grab the two NE TEs (Gronkowski and Hernandez) and start them both. Check out their numbers from last year:
Gronkowski: 48 receptions, 576 yards, 6 TDs
Hernandez: 42 receptions, 525 yards, 5 TDs,
Combined: 90 receptions, 1101 yards, 11 TDs
I’m not saying that they’d repeat those numbers. But what you can say with confidence is that Tom Brady threw to his TEs last season and both these guys could be had in the $5 to $8 range. I would take something like those numbers in that range.
Spend no more that $3 total for starting K, DEF, DEF, and each bench spot should be in the $1 to $5 range. I’m not big on studying defenses (I’d rather play match-ups) and the rest I don’t have to explain.
My Team
Here’s how it all turned out:
QB Vick ($43)
QB Rodgers ($42)
WR Colston ($21)
WR S. Smith (Car) ($8)
WR S. Moss ($8)
WR Lance Moore ($5)
RB S. Jackson ($27)
RB J. Stewart ($21)
RB F. Jackson ($8)
TE Gates ($25)
TE Davis ($15)
K Bironas ($1)
DEF Minnesota ($2)
DEF Seattle ($1)
BN Torain ($5)
BN M. Williams (Sea) ($2)
BN D. Branch ($1)
BN P. Thomas ($1)
BN Rashad Jennings ($2)
BN Alex Smith ($1)
Total Spent: $239
Some Thoughts
- I’m really, really pumped to have grabbed Vick and Rodgers. Those were my top two QBs based on the fact that they run – in addition to very sexy passing numbers, you could tack on another 1000 rushing yards and 9-10 rushing TDs, which is like getting an RB2-RB3 for free.
Much like Matthew Berry, I’m all in on Vick this year. I know he’s going to miss games, but as long as he’s healthy for the playoffs, that’s all that matters. Simply put, it’s just too great a reward not to take that risk. (Anyone remember that game against the Redskins last year? 333 yards passing, 4 TDs, 80 yards rushing, 2 TDs?) Fantasy football is a crapshoot, and Michael Vick can take the biggest crap of all. Add in that I’m a Philly fan so this will give me something extra to root for, and it was a no-brainer.
And not only did they come in $5 under my budget, but by getting both within the first 14 nominations, I set the market early. Rivers went for $40, Brees and Brady $39, Manning and Romo (???) for $37, and Matt Ryan for $32. Would you rather than Romo or Ryan for those prices or spend a few extra buck to get Rodgers or Vick?
QB grade: A+++
- I did not realize how banged up Colston was, but I’m still ok with $21 for him – especially since I added Lance Moore, who will be the #1 in NO should Colston not be able to go, for only $5. I don’t expect too much out of Steve Smith and Santana Moss, but I think they will produce more than their $8 price tags. I budgeted $30 for a second-tier WR alone, but instead got four WRs that will start on most standard leagues for only $42.
WR grade: B
- My plan to target RBs who do not catch hit a snag. See, when you do an auction draft, the site (in our case, Yahoo) will give you two auction values: what the player is usually going for, and what the site thinks they’ll go for. Because we were using the .33 PPR, I assumed this would be a consideration in the auction value. It was not, as Yahoo used their default, no PPR values. Therefore, the fourth highest priced RB? Michael Turner.
(Knowing this, it would have been better to target those backs who do catch passes, since Yahoo suggested values for them as though they did not.)
Anyway, I wasn’t particularly in love with Steven Jackson, but I though $27 was a fair price (Ray Rice went for $43, Peterson and Jamaal Charles for $41, etc). There is nothing sexy at all about Fred Jackson, except that he could have 1000 yards and 9 TD’s – which, for a measly $8, I’m ok with.
RB grade: B/B+
- Like Colston, I was not aware of the extent of Gates’ injury. That said, while $25 is a lot of money, that is exactly what I budgeted. And what happened during the course of the auction, when WRs were going like hot cakes, caused me to change my strategy and instead target a second stud-ish TE, so I liked getting Davis for a reasonable $15.
TE grade: B+ (potentially higher, depending on Gates’ health)
- I’m fine with Bironas, Minnesota and Seattle. I think Minne at $2 was a bit of a steal, and my reasoning for Seattle is a) at least they have a good home-field advantage and b) at least they play in the NFC West. I really like Torain, Rashad Jennings and Pierre Thomas for a combined $8. Who knows what’ll shake out in Washington and New Orleans, but those two are gonna get looks. I was shocked that MJD is only 26, but he’s still 5’7” and has gotten a lot of touches over the years, so Jennings was the back-up I was targeting more than anyone else. As far as Mike Williams, Deion Branch and Alex Smith…meh.
K/DEF/BN grade: B
Final Thoughts
Overall, I’m happy with the team. No one in the league comes close to the Vick-Rodgers one-two punch; again, having those two as your QBs more or less give you an extra RB because of their running numbers. I have three starting RBs who should rush for more than 1000 yards each. My WRs are a bit of a crapshoot, but if I get 13 games out of Gates, my TEs should more than make up for it.
But hey, it’s all luck anyway. Happy drafting!
I hope you are enjoying your summer! I personally hate summer – I prefer the long, cold, dark, lonely nights of winter, when it’s perfectly acceptable to sit inside a poorly-lit basement bar, drinking pint after pint of cheap draft beer, cursing yourself and the difference between the potential you once had and the person you have become – but hey, maybe that’s just me.
Anyway, I wanted to drop and note to say hi and tell you about some shit I’ve got going on that you may also interest you, my friends.
************
I’m on Spotify. And so are a number of my playlists and 7,000 of my songs.
I gotta be honest: I’m not totally sure how Spotify works. I find the interface awkward and the whole thing a bit clunky. I easily put my music on there, but I have no idea how to update the playlists or find other users unless they subscribe to one of my playlists and find me first. I’ve been able to post playlists on my Facebook and Twitter accounts, which is nice, but that’s about it.
But having said that, boy, this mother fucker has potential. If you’re not familiar with Spotify, think of it like one large iTunes that we can all share with each other. You can search the entire database of users (supposedly) and find almost any song you want (this I’ve done successfully). And, as mentioned above, you can subscribe to other user’s playlists.
All my playlists I’ve talked about over the years – Let’s Make Out or Something, Sad as Fuck, The Best (five star songs), Seriously Good Shit (four star-plus songs), Good Shit (three star-plus songs), etc – are on there. So sign up and have a listen. Once I figure out how to work it better, I’ll continue to add new playlists and songs. If you click on this link, it should get you to Good Shit, and from there you should be able access my profile and other songs. Happy listening!
(And once you’re on there, send me some of your favorite music, please.)
************
If you have an e-reader, I have good news: you can now get my book – or any of 19 other great Harper Perennial titles – for just 99¢ in August.
99¢!!! For a whole book that took me months to write and has a bunch of funny pictures! And that people said good stuff about! Like:
- Booklist (“[Mulgrew] clearly subscribes to the Sedaris school of memoir writing”);
- John Hodgman (“Few essayists are as bravely–and hilariously–self-revealing and self-abusing”); and
- Rob McElhenney, star, creator, and producer of IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA (“People who grow up like this tend to become agoraphobics, serial killers, or really funny writers. Mulgrew, I think— hope?—is the last of these three things. His stories of childhood made me laugh out loud. Jason: I did your quote; please don’t murder me.”).
So now is a great time to pick up my book and load up your Kindle or Nook or whatever else you got with a number of funny/hip/cool titles. You can get months worth of reading materials for about the cost of a burger and beer!
And of course, please feel free to spread the word and alert any and all of your e-reader friends. This is only for the month of August. 99¢! What is this world coming to?
Thank you in advance. I can promise you that my book is definitely worth 99¢ – it’s at least in the $1.15-$1.20 range, so you’re getting some serious bang for your buck.
(And if you’re like me and haven’t made the switch to digital, you can get yourself a hard copy for under $6. I mean, c’mon already.)
Here are the e-reader links:
- Kindle
- Nook
- iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch or iTunes
And FYI, book two is coming along rather nicely and is roughly scheduled to be released just around this time next year. It’s about high school. And it’s got some pictures. And writing it has been an emotional roller coaster (in a good way) (mostly). I’ll let you know more in the next few weeks and months, but if you liked the first one? This one’s going to blow your doors off. Promise.
************
Finally, I got engaged. To be married. To a woman. Who has an IQ above 70*. Who speaks English as her first language and whose American citizenship was not a condition of our engagement. Who has no obvious physical, mental, psychological or emotional defects. Who is (probably) therefore (way) too good for me.
(* I never thought I’d be googling “maximum IQ for retardation” when explaining/writing about my engagement. I am certain that my fiancée has an IQ well above 70, but in case you were wondering, an IQ of 70 is the cut-off for retardation.)
(“I am certain that my fiancée has an IQ well above 70.” And who says romance is dead?)
No, we do not have a date set, and we have only the vague idea that whatever we do, it will not be traditional. Yes, I proposed in the kitchen of our apartment. No, I did not use the Engagement Ring Dossier (I know, I know – it’s still genius, but she was simple: I knew she preferred one big round stone, and I knew her ring size from a previous ring I’d gotten her). Yes, our family and friends are happy and are asking these and a million other questions on a daily basis. Which is fine.
I don’t have any major regrets about leaving the single life. I had a good run – way, way better than I should have – so I’m alright with that. I do have some minor regrets, like never having slept with a black chick (dammit) or never having had a threesome (not gonna happen now) or never having paid two junkie runaways to come back to my place and let me watch them have sex (this one still has a chance). But there are only a few men that can go through life and check off every box on their sexual wish list. These are the DiCaprios and the Clooneys and the Timberlakes of the world. They are not the overweight bearded guy who works in law firm marketing and wrote a moderately well-selling memoir and enjoys masturbating on the roof of his apartment building because he finds the fresh air and the danger sexually invigorating. So I’m ok with no longer being single.
I’m also ok with the commitment. Now that I’m engaged, I don’t have any greater wisdom, nor do I have any grand proclamations about the nature of love. Except this: Love you read about in poems or see in movies is horseshit. Real, actual, non-fantasy love comes down to three things:
1) Do I like to kiss this person?
2) Do I like to hang out with this person?
3) Does this person make me laugh (but is not funnier than me) (which is very important in my case)?
If you can find someone who makes you answer each of these questions with a resounding, 100%, no-doubt-about-it yes, then you gotta lock that shit down. So I did.
It doesn’t have to be much harder than this.
************
Enjoy the rest of your summer. Thank you for reading and following the shit out of me on Tumblr and Twitter.
Hugs,
Jason
99¢!!! For a whole book that took me months to write and has a bunch of funny pictures! And that people said good stuff about! Like:
- Booklist (“[Mulgrew] clearly subscribes to the Sedaris school of memoir writing”);
- John Hodgman (“Few essayists are as bravely-and hilariously-self-revealing and self-abusing”); and
- Rob McElhenney, star, creator, and producer of IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA (“People who grow up like this tend to become agoraphobics, serial killers, or really funny writers. Mulgrew, I think- hope?-is the last of these three things. His stories of childhood made me laugh out loud. Jason: I did your quote; please don’t murder me.”).
So now is a great time to pick up my book and load up your Kindle or Nook or whatever else you got with a number of funny/hip/cool titles. You can get months worth of reading materials for about the cost of a burger and beer!
And of course, please feel free to spread the word and alert any and all of your e-reader friends. This is only for the month of August. 99¢! What is this world coming to?
Thank you in advance. I can promise you that my book is definitely worth 99¢ – it’s at least in the $1.15-$1.20 range, so you’re getting some serious bang for your buck.
(And if you’re like me and haven’t made the switch to digital, you can get yourself a hard copy for under $6. I mean, c’mon already.)
Here are the e-reader links:
- Kindle
- Nook
- iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch or iTunes